MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH - MONDAY, MARCH 2, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED FRIDAY ON A SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TREND, BUT FAILED TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION ABOVE 13,900.00. THE INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT 13,717.81, DOWN 1.16%. AMONG SECTORAL INDICES, THE BANKING INDEX FELL BY 1.71%, WHILE THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX`S DECLINE WAS LIMITED TO 0.32%. THE TECHNOLOGY INDEX WAS THE MOST POSITIVELY PERFORMING INDEX WITH A 3.08% GAIN, WHILE THE COMMUNICATIONS INDEX WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE WITH A 4.22% LOSS. ON A WEEKLY BASIS, THE BIST-100 INDEX FELL BY 1.55%, WHILE THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX FELL BY 1.13%. THE BANKING INDEX, HOWEVER, SHOWED A POSITIVE DIVERGENCE WITH A 1.60% GAIN. THE VIOP APRIL FUTURES CONTRACT CLOSED FRIDAY EVENING UP 0.18%. GLOBALLY, THE DOW JONES INDEX FELL 1.05%, THE S&P 500 INDEX 0.43%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX 0.92%. IN EUROPE, LOSSES WERE MORE LIMITED, WITH THE GERMAN DAX INDEX DOWN 0.02% AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX DOWN 0.38%. ON SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 28TH, U.S. AND ISRAELI FORCES LAUNCHED LARGE-SCALE JOINT ATTACKS ON IRAN. THE U.S.-ISRAELI ATTACKS RESULTED IN THE DEATHS OF IRANIAN LEADER KHAMENEI AND OTHER HIGH-RANKING MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT. IRANIAN CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF ABDOLRAHIM MOUSAVI AND REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS COMMANDER MOHAMMAD PAKPOUR WERE REPORTEDLY AMONG THOSE KILLED IN ATTACKS CARRIED OUT BY THE U.S. AND ISRAEL. IRANIAN FORCES LAUNCHED RETALIATORY ATTACKS AGAINST ISRAEL AND U.S. BASES IN THE GULF COUNTRIES. AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS, RISK APPETITE IN EQUITY MARKETS REMAINS WEAK DUE TO RISING GEOPOLITICAL TENSION IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ASIAN STOCK MARKETS ARE GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOSSES EXCEEDING 1%. THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN FUTURES ARE TRADING NEGATIVELY. ON THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA, THE FOURTH-QUARTER GDP DATA FOR 2025 IS PROMINENT DOMESTICALLY. MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR GROWTH OF 3.6% IN THE LAST QUARTER AND 3.7% IN 2025. WE EXPECT GROWTH OF 3.5% IN THE LAST QUARTER AND 3.6% IN 2025. GLOBALLY, THE MAIN HEADLINES TO BE FOLLOWED ARE THE GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI DATA AND A SPEECH BY ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE. DOMESTICALLY, MONDAY BEGINS WITH MEASURES TAKEN BY THE CBRT, THE BIST, AND THE CMB REGARDING POTENTIAL MARKET VOLATILITY IN LIGHT OF THE U.S.-ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT. ACCORDING TO A PRESS RELEASE FROM THE CBRT, IN ORDER TO ENSURE THE HEALTHY FUNCTIONING OF THE FX MARKET, PREVENT VOLATILITY IN FX RATES, AND BALANCE FX LIQUIDITY, TURKISH LIRA-SETTLED FORWARD FX SALES TRANSACTIONS WILL BE INITIATED AT THE BANK, AND 1-WEEK REPO AUCTIONS HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED. BORSA ISTANBUL A.S. ANNOUNCED THAT IT HAS REDUCED THE ORDER/TRANSACTION RATIO (OTR) IN THE EQUITY MARKET FROM 5:1 TO 3:1 UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ACCORDING TO AN ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE CBRT SHORT SELLING TRANSACTIONS IN THE BORSA ISTANBUL A.S. EQUITY MARKETS WILL BE PROHIBITED FROM MARCH 2, 2026, UNTIL THE END OF THE TRADING SESSION ON MARCH 6, 2026, AND THE EQUITY RATIO WILL BE RELAXED DURING THE CONTINUATION OF LEVERAGED CAPITAL MARKET TRANSACTIONS. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START MONDAY NEGATIVELY AND FOLLOW A VOLATILE INTRADAY COURSE. SUPPORT: 13,100 - 13,000 RESISTANCE: 13,800 - 13,900.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE ON FRIDAY, WEAKENING 0.15% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 43.9515. THE CURRENCY ALSO DEPRECIATED BY 0.11% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY FLAT. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND YIELD FLUCTUATED BETWEEN A TIGHT RANGE OF 30.09%-30.15%, CLOSING THE DAY AT 30.12%, UP 5 BPS FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE.
HEADLINES:
*** ON THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA TODAY, THE FOURTH QUARTER GDP FIGURES FOR 2025 WILL BE PUBLISHED DOMESTICALLY. MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR GROWTH TO HAVE REACHED 3.6% IN THE LAST QUARTER AND 3.7% IN 2025. AT SEKER INVEST, WE EXPECT GROWTH OF 3.5% IN THE LAST QUARTER AND 3.6% IN 2025. OUR DETAILED ANALYSIS WILL BE PUBLISHED LATER TODAY.
*** ACCORDING TO A PRESS RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE (CBRT), CONSIDERING DEVELOPMENTS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS, IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO TEMPORARILY SUSPEND ONE-WEEK REPO AUCTIONS. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SIGNIFICANT LIQUIDITY SURPLUS IN THE MARKET, FUNDING THROUGH THIS CHANNEL HAS A RELATIVELY WEAK IMPACT. AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ARE RISING, THE MESSAGE HAS BEEN CONVEYED THAT A TIGHTER STANCE WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL MARKETS CALM DOWN. THIS MOVE AIMS TO PREVENT POTENTIAL VOLATILITY IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET AND PRE-EMPT INFLATIONARY EFFECTS. WE EXPECT IT TO HAVE A LIMITED POSITIVE IMPACT.
*** ACCORDING TO A PRESS RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE (CBRT), IT WILL START CONDUCTING TURKISH LIRA-SETTLED FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORWARD SELLING TRANSACTIONS IN ORDER TO ENSURE THE SOUND FUNCTIONING OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, PREVENT POSSIBLE VOLATILITIES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND STABILIZE FOREIGN EXCHANGE LIQUIDITY. IN PARTICULAR, THE CBRT WILL ATTEMPT TO STERILIZE THE PRESSURE CREATED ON THE SPOT MARKET BY VOLATILITY IN THE FORWARD MARKETS. POSITIONS OPENED TO REDUCE EXCHANGE RATE RISK IN FORWARD TRANSACTIONS IN THE REAL AND FINANCIAL SECTORS CREATE PRESSURE IN THE SPOT MARKET, WHILE THE CBRT ASSUMES THIS RISK BY BECOMING A SELLER IN THE FORWARD MARKET. THUS, EFFORTS ARE MADE TO MINIMIZE VOLATILITY AND RISKS IN THE SPOT MARKET. THIS IS A DECISION THAT CREATES A POSITIVE IMPACT.
SECTOR NEWS:
ACCORDING TO DATA RELEASED BY THE TURKISH WHITE GOODS MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION (TURKBESD), IN THE SIX MAIN PRODUCT CATEGORIES (REFRIGERATOR, WASHING MACHINE, DISHWASHER, OVEN, FREEZER, AND TUMBLE DRYER), DOMESTIC SALES TOTALED 635,475 UNITS IN JANUARY, MARKING AN 18% YEAR-ON-YEAR DECLINE. EXPORT VOLUME REACHED 1,340,670 UNITS, ON A 19% DECREASE COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. ON THE PRODUCTION SIDE, OUTPUT AMOUNTED TO 2,013,496 UNITS, DOWN 19% YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARED TO JANUARY 2025. AS A RESULT, TOTAL SALES VOLUME DECLINED BY 19% ANNUALLY TO 1,976,145 UNITS.
WHEN ANALYZED BY PRODUCT GROUP, NONE OF THE SIX MAIN CATEGORIES RECORDED YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH IN DOMESTIC SALES, WITH THE SHARPEST CONTRACTION OBSERVED IN THE TUMBLE DRYER SEGMENT AT 34%. ON THE EXPORT SIDE, THE OVEN CATEGORY REMAINED FLAT YEAR-ON-YEAR, WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DECLINE WAS SEEN IN REFRIGERATORS, DOWN 30%. A SIMILAR PICTURE EMERGED IN PRODUCTION DATA, WHERE NO PRODUCT GROUP POSTED GROWTH THE STEEPEST DECLINE WAS RECORDED IN WASHING MACHINES, DOWN 28%. THE SECTOR FACED PRESSURE FROM BOTH DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL DEMAND IN THE FIRST MONTH OF 2026. THE DATA POINTS TO DECLINING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES, MARGIN PRESSURE, AND AN INCREASED FOCUS ON CASH FLOW MANAGEMENT. NO CLEAR BOTTOMING-OUT SIGNAL HAS YET EMERGED IN ANY PRODUCT CATEGORY. A RECOVERY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE IMPROVED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOMESTICALLY AND A STRENGTHENING OF DEMAND CONDITIONS IN EXPORT MARKETS. THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK REMAINS CAUTIOUS.
COMPANY NEWS:
DOGUS OTOMOTIV (DOAS.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE CASH DIVIDEND DISTRIBUTION AMOUNTING TO TRY 6.6 BILLION WILL BE SUBMITTED FOR GENERAL ASSEMBLY APPROVAL TO BE PAID IN TWO EQUAL INSTALLMENTS. FOR SHARES WITH A NOMINAL VALUE OF TRY 1, THE 1ST AND 2ND INSTALLMENTS WILL BE PROPOSED TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY AT GROSS TRY 15.0000 (NET TRY 12.7500) PER SHARE. BASED ON THE CLOSING PRICE AS OF FEBRUARY 27, 2026, THE TOTAL CASH DIVIDEND PER SHARE CORRESPONDS TO A GROSS DIVIDEND YIELD OF 13.7%.
ACCORDING TO ITS INFLATION-ADJUSTED (IAS-29) FINANCIALS, DOGUS OTOMOTIV (DOAS.TI OP) REPORTED A NET LOSS OF TRY 2,131MN FOR 4Q25, SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE MARKET`S AVERAGE NET PROFIT EXPECTATIONS (4Q24: TRY 1,636MN NET PROFIT) (RT MARKET CONSENSUS: TRY 1,662MN, SEKER: TRY 1,875MN). IN 4Q25, DOGUS OTOMOTIV REPORTED NET SALES OF TRY 77,474MN, REFLECTING A 1.7% YOY DECLINE INCLUDING IAS-29 EFFECTS (4Q24: TRY 78,775MN) (RT MARKET CONSENSUS: TRY 85,820MN, SEKER: TRY 89,409MN). THE COMPANY`S GROSS PROFIT DECLINED BY 29.6% YOY TO TRY 8,208MN IN 4Q25. DOGUS OTOMOTIV`S GP MARGIN OF 10.6% IN 4Q25 CONTRACTED BY 4.2PP YOY. IN 4Q25, THE COMPANY REPORTED AN EBITDA MARGIN OF 3.0%, 1.6PP BELOW THE 4.6% (TRY 3,639MN) RECORDED IN 4Q24, WITH EBITDA OF TRY 2,358MN (RT MARKET CONSENSUS: TRY 3,499MN, SEKER: TRY 3,904MN). 2026 OUTLOOK: THE COMPANY EXPECTS THE DOMESTIC RETAIL MARKET TO EXCEED 1.1MN UNITS IN 2026 (PC + LCV + HCV), WHILE BRANDED VEHICLE SALES FOR DOGUS OTOMOTIV ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 117,000 UNITS (EXCLUDING SKODA). THE COMPANY`S CAPEX TARGET FOR 2026 STANDS AT TRY 5.1BN (NEGATIVE).
WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THE SHARE BUY-BACK PROGRAM, TURKISH AIRLINES (THYAO.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THYAO SHARES WITH A TRY 300,000 NOMINAL VALUE WERE BOUGHT BACK BY THE COMPANY ON THE BIST FOR TRY 92.3 MILLION ON FEBRUARY 27, 2026 WITHIN A PRICE RANGE OF TRY 305.5 - TRY 309.25 (WEIGHTED AVERAGE TRY 307.5) PER SHARE. FOLLOWING THE TRANSACTION, THE TOTAL NOMINAL VALUE OF REPURCHASED SHARES HAS REACHED TRY 7,640,244, WHICH REPRESENTS 0.553641% OF THE COMPANY`S CAPITAL.
ACCORDING TO INFLATION ACCOUNTING PROVISIONS (IAS-29), ZORLU ENERGY (ZOREN.TI MP) RECORDED A NET LOSS OF TRY 10,009MN IN 4Q25 (NET LOSS OF TRY 5,481MN IN 4Q24). NEGATIVE OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE IN 4Q25 (NEGATIVE EBIT AND EBITDA OF TRY1,546MN AND TRY 8MN IN 4Q25), RECORDED EXPENSES FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES OF TRY 3,098MN IN 4Q25 (DUE TO IMPAIRMENT LOSS ON PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT), INCREASED DEFERRED TAX LOSS TO TRY 3,012MN IN 4Q25 (VS. DEFERRED TAX GAIN OF TRY 2,757MN IN 4Q24) AND SHARE OF LOSS OF INVESTMENTS ACCOUNTED FOR USING THE EQUITY METHOD OF TRY 1,060MN IN 4Q25, DUE TO THE IAS-29 EFFECT WERE FACTORS SUPPRESSING THE BOTTOM LINE. ON THE OTHER HAND, LOWER FINANCING EXPENSES (TRY 2,183MN IN 4Q25 VS. TRY 8,867MN IN 4Q24) LIMITED THE INCREASE IN THE NET LOSS. ON THE OPERATIONAL SIDE THE COMPANY RECORDED NET SALES REVENUE OF TRY 11,253MN IN 4Q25, UP BY 5.5% YOY, FACTORING IN THE IAS-29 IMPACT, COMPARED TO 4Q24 (TRY 10,671MN). THE COMPANY RECORDED A NEGATIVE EBIT OF TRY1,546MN AND NEGATIVE EBITDA OF TRY 8MN IN 4Q25 (EBIT OF TRY 927MN AND EBITDA OF TRY 2,544MN IN 4Q24) DUE TO INCREASED COGS AND OPEX, INCLUDING THE IAS-29 IMPACT. ZORLU ENERGY`S FINANCIAL DEBT DECREASED TO USD 1,168MN IN YE25 (FROM USD 1,231MN AS OF 9M25 AND USD 1,254MN IN YE24) AFTER THE SALE OF DORAD. HOWEVER, THE DEBT/EBITDA RATIO INCREASED TO 3.82X IN YE25 (3.42X IN 9M25 AND 3.62X IN YE24) DUE TO DECREASED EBITDA. WE MAY SEE A NEGATIVE MARKET REACTION DUE TO THE 4Q25 BOTTOM-LINE LOSS AND NEGATIVE EBITDA.
VESTEL WHITE GOODS (VESBE.TI OP) REPORTED A NET LOSS OF TRY 2,850MN IN 4Q25 (INCLUDING TMS-29 INFLATION ACCOUNTING EFFECTS), SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 128MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 194MN. THE DECLINE IN REVENUES DUE TO WEAK DEMAND AND CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH ELEVATED OPERATING EXPENSES, RESULTED IN AN OPERATING LOSS OF TRY 982MN. NET OTHER EXPENSES OF TRY 1,193MN AND NET FINANCIAL EXPENSES OF TRY 1,162MN WERE THE MAIN DRIVERS BEHIND THE BOTTOM-LINE LOSS.
INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS, NET SALES DECLINED BY 38.2% YOY IN 4Q25 TO TRY 14,482MN, FALLING SHORT OF BOTH OUR AND THE MARKET`S MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 20,972MN. REVENUES CONTRACTED AMID DIFFICULT MARKET CONDITIONS. PRICING DYNAMICS WEAKENED IN BOTH DOMESTIC AND EXPORT MARKETS, WHILE DEMAND STAGNATION IN EUROPE PERSISTED. REVENUES IN KEY EUROPEAN EXPORT MARKETS WERE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY INTENSIFYING COMPETITION AND WEAK MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS. THE COMPANY FOCUSED ON DIVERSIFYING ITS REVENUE BASE IN NON-EUROPEAN MARKETS. DOMESTIC AND EXPORT SHIPMENTS DECLINED ON A YEARLY BASIS, REFLECTING HEIGHTENED COMPETITION IN CORE MARKETS. THE ANNUAL CPI INCREASE LED TO A REAL DECLINE IN TRY-DENOMINATED REVENUES. OPERATING MARGINS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO RISING COSTS AND LIMITED PRICE INCREASES. INFLATIONARY PRESSURES CAUSED LABOR COSTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF REVENUES TO INCREASE YEAR-ON-YEAR. A MODERATE INCREASE IN EUR/TRY AND EUR/USD PROVIDED A POSITIVE FX CONTRIBUTION TO EXPORTS. GROSS MARGIN DECLINED TO 3.8% (4Q24: 8.5%). EBITDA CAME IN AT NEGATIVE TRY 14MN IN 4Q25, SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW OUR FORECAST OF TRY 787MN AND THE MARKET EXPECTATION OF TRY 782MN. THE EBITDA MARGIN STOOD AT -0.1% (4Q24: 5.7%).
THE COMPANY`S NET DEBT INCREASED FROM TRY 19,140MN AS OF JUNE 2025 TO TRY 20,084MN AT THE END OF DECEMBER 2025. LTM EBITDA WAS RECORDED AT TRY 2,699MN, RESULTING IN A NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO OF 7.44X. RISING LEVERAGE AND WEAKENING OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE EXERTED UPWARD PRESSURE ON NET LEVERAGE METRICS.



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WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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