MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH – THURSDAY, APRIL 2, 2026

OUTLOOK:

THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED WEDNESDAY POSITIVELY, FOLLOWED A VOLATILE COURSE BETWEEN 12,895.09-13,031.57 THEREAFTER AND CLOSED THE DAY AT 12,937.87, UP 1.15%. THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX ROSE BY 0.96%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX SHOWED A POSITIVE DIVERGENCE WITH A 2.29% GAIN. THE VIOP APRIL FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX RECORDED A LIMITED DECREASE OF 0.07% IN THE EVENING SESSION. ON A DAY WHEN RISK APPETITE REMAINED STRONG IN GLOBAL MARKETS, THE DOW JONES INDEX ROSE 0.48%, THE S&P 500 INDEX 0.72%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX 1.16% IN THE U.S., WHILE THE GERMAN DAX INDEX GAINED 2.73% AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX 3.05% IN EUROPE. DESPITE PRESIDENT TRUMP STATING THAT MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRAN WERE LARGELY COMPLETED, HIS EMPHASIS ON HARSHER ATTACKS IN THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS AND HIS MESSAGE THAT ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE COULD BE TARGETED IF AN AGREEMENT IS NOT REACHED STRENGTHENED EXPECTATIONS THAT THE CONFLICT COULD INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WEAKENED EXPECTATIONS OF EARLY NORMALIZATION, WHICH WERE PRICED INTO THE MARKETS YESTERDAY, LEADING TO A DETERIORATION IN GLOBAL RISK APPETITE, A RISE IN OIL PRICES, AND SELLING PRESSURE IN EQUITY MARKETS. AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAK RISK APPETITE, ASIAN STOCK MARKETS ARE EXPERIENCING SELLING PRESSURE THIS MORNING, WHILE THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN INDEX FUTURES ARE ALSO TRADING NEGATIVELY. TODAY`S MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA INCLUDES THE CBRT’S WEEKLY SECURITIES STATISTICS AND WEEKLY MONEY AND BANKING DATA DOMESTICALLY, AND THE U.S. TRADE BALANCE AND WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA ABROAD. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START THURSDAY WITH SELLING PRESSURE DUE TO WEAKENING GLOBAL RISK APPETITE, AND TO EXPERIENCE VOLATILE TRADING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUPPORT: 12,800 - 12,700 RESISTANCE: 13,000 - 13,100.

MONEY MARKET:

THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE YESTERDAY, WEAKENING 0.02% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 44.4864. THE CURRENCY ALSO DEPRECIATED BY 0.70% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE POSITIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND YIELD FLUCTUATED WITHIN A RANGE OF 32.48%-32.78%, CLOSING THE DAY AT 32.66%, DOWN 86 BPS FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE.

SECTOR NEWS:

THE REFERENCE EURO EXCHANGE RATE USED IN PHARMACEUTICAL PRICING HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM TRY 26.88 TO TRY 29.11 AS OF APRIL 1, CORRESPONDING TO AN APPROXIMATELY 8.3% RISE. WHEN CONSIDERED TOGETHER WITH THE PREVIOUS 6.1% ADJUSTMENT MADE ON MARCH 13, THE CUMULATIVE INCREASE SINCE MARCH 12 REACHES APPROXIMATELY 14.9%. THIS EXCHANGE RATE UPDATE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PRICING FLEXIBILITY AND HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON PROFITABILITY FOR DOMESTIC PHARMACEUTICAL MANUFACTURERS AND DISTRIBUTORS. HOWEVER, SECTOR REPRESENTATIVES NOTE THAT DESPITE THE INCREASE, THE UPDATED REFERENCE RATE STILL DOES NOT FULLY REFLECT CURRENT MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND REMAINS BELOW PREVAILING MARKET REALITIES (SLIGHTLY POSITIVE).

COMPANY NEWS:

TUPRAS (TUPRS.TI OP): ACCORDING TO DATA SHARED BY THE COMPANY, PRODUCT MARGINS RECORDED A MONTHLY INCREASE IN MARCH.

· GASOLINE MARGIN INCREASED BY 20% MOM TO USD16.1/BBL.

· JET FUEL MARGIN INCREASED BY 256% MOM TO USD84.4/BBL.

· DIESEL MARGIN INCREASED BY 153% MOM TO USD58.4/BBL.

· FUEL OIL MARGIN WAS REALIZED AT -USD14.1/BBL (FEBRUARY 2026: -USD15.5/BBL).

PRODUCT MARGINS WERE ABOVE THEIR 5-YEAR AVERAGES FOR DIESEL AND JET FUEL, WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR GASOLINE. WE VIEW THE MARGIN OUTLOOK AS POSITIVE FOR OPERATIONAL PROFITABILITY.

SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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