MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH - MONDAY, MAY 4, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED THURSDAY WITH A DOWNTREND, BUT REVERSED ITS DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO CLOSE AT 14,442.56, UP 0.92%. THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX ROSE 1.06%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX INCREASED BY 0.63%. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUED TO INFLUENCE THE MARKETS, BRINGING THE BIST`S TOTAL GAIN FOR THE PAST WEEK TO 0.23%. THE VIOP NEAR-TERM INDEX FUTURES CONTRACT SHOWED A 0.24% INCREASE IN THURSDAY EVENING`S SESSION. GLOBALLY, RISK APPETITE REMAINED GENERALLY POSITIVE ON FRIDAY, INFLUENCED BY BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED CORPORATE EARNINGS REPORTS IN THE U.S.. THE GERMAN DAX INDEX ROSE 1.41%, WHILE THE DOW JONES INDEX FELL 0.31%. IN THE U.S., THE S&P 500 INDEX ROSE 0.29% AND THE NASDAQ INDEX DIVERGED POSITIVELY, UP 0.89% AFTER MAJOR COMPANIES SUCH AS AMAZON, ALPHABET, MICROSOFT, AND EXXON MOBIL ANNOUNCED BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED FINANCIAL RESULTS. OIL PRICES RETREATED FROM ABOVE USD100 ON NEWS THAT IRAN HAD SUBMITTED A NEW OFFER TO THE U.S. VIA PAKISTAN ON THURSDAY EVENING, WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP STATING THAT HE WAS REVIEWING THE OFFER BUT FOUND IT `UNACCEPTABLE.` TRUMP ALSO INDICATED THAT THE U.S. WOULD BEGIN EFFORTS TO ASSIST SHIPS STRANDED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THIS MORNING, THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN FUTURES MARKETS, AS WELL AS ASIAN STOCK MARKETS, ARE SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND FOLLOWING BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED EARNINGS REPORTS FROM U.S. TECH COMPANIES. ON THE MACROECONOMIC DATA FRONT, DOMESTIC APRIL INFLATION FIGURES WILL BE RELEASED. MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A 3.23% MONTHLY INCREASE IN CPI AND A 31.16% ANNUAL INCREASE IN APRIL, WHILE WE EXPECT A 3.45% MONTHLY AND 31.44% ANNUAL INCREASE. GLOBALLY, MANUFACTURING PMI DATA FROM GERMANY AND THE EUROZONE WILL BE MONITORED. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START THE WEEK POSITIVELY AND, IF ANY POTENTIAL PROFIT-TAKING IS ABSORBED DURING THE DAY, ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN ITS UPTREND. SUPPORT: 14,350 - 14,250 RESISTANCE: 14,550 - 14,650.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE ON THURSDAY, WEAKENING 0.25% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 45.1845. THE CURRENCY ALSO DEPRECIATED BY 0.28% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE POSITIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND WAS TRADED WITHIN A RANGE OF 33.89%-34.42%, ENDING THE DAY AT A LOW OF 33.89%, 30 BPS BELOW ITS PREVIOUS CLOSING.
HEADLINES:
ON TODAY`S MACROECONOMIC DATA CALENDAR, DOMESTIC INFLATION FIGURES FOR APRIL ARE DUE TO BE RELEASED. MARKET EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CPI ROSE BY 3.23% MONTH-ON-MONTH AND 31.16% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN APRIL. AT SEKER INVEST, WE EXPECT INFLATION OF 3.45% MONTH-ON-MONTH AND 31.44% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN APRIL. OUR DETAILED ANALYSIS WILL BE PUBLISHED LATER TODAY.
SECTOR NEWS
*** THE BANKING SECTOR`S NET PROFIT INCREASED BY 45% MOM IN MARCH, SUPPORTED BY STRONG GROWTH IN NET INTEREST INCOME AND NET FEE AND COMMISSION INCOME: ACCORDING TO MONTHLY BRSA DATA, THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR`S NET PROFIT REACHED TRY 119.0BN IN MARCH, SUPPORTED BY A 20.6% INCREASE IN NET INTEREST INCOME AND A 20.7% RISE IN NET FEE AND COMMISSION INCOME. MEANWHILE, AN 8% INCREASE IN EXPECTED CREDIT LOSS PROVISIONS AND A 5.4% RISE IN OPERATING EXPENSES EXERTED A LIMITED DRAG ON PROFITABILITY.
THE SECTOR`S NET PROFIT FOR 1Q26 INCREASED BY 33% YOY TO TRY 288.4BN (1Q25: TRY 216.7BN).
THE INCREASE WAS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY STRONG GROWTH IN NET INTEREST INCOME (+95%) AND FEE AND COMMISSION INCOME (+40%), WHILE A 51.6% RISE IN OPERATING EXPENSES AND A 46% INCREASE IN EXPECTED CREDIT LOSS PROVISIONS WERE THE MAIN FACTORS WEIGHING ON PROFITABILITY.
LOOKING AT OTHER INCOME AND EXPENSE DYNAMICS, A 45% DECLINE IN TRADING LOSSES IN MARCH SUPPORTED PROFITABILITY, WHILE A 14% CONTRACTION IN OTHER OPERATING INCOME PARTIALLY OFFSET THIS POSITIVE IMPACT.
WHILE SECTOR-WIDE PROFITABILITY IMPROVED, THE STRONGEST INCREASE IN MARCH WAS RECORDED BY DOMESTIC PRIVATE DEPOSIT BANKS (+137%), FOLLOWED BY PARTICIPATION BANKS (+67%) AND STATE-OWNED DEPOSIT BANKS (+48%).
THE SECTOR`S NPL RATIO INCREASED BY 3BPS TO 2.65%, WHILE PROVISIONING COVERAGE ROSE BY 10BPS TO 75.8%. CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIOS EDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY, WITH THE CORE CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO AT 12.4% AND THE TOTAL CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO AT 16.5%.
COMPANY NEWS:
ASELSAN (ASELS.TI OP) HAS SIGNED EXPORT SALES CONTRACTS WITH INTERNATIONAL CUSTOMERS FOR AIR DEFENSE, RADAR, ELECTRONIC WARFARE, ELECTRO-OPTICS, AVIONICS, AND COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS, WITH A TOTAL VALUE OF USD 125.1 MILLION. THE CONTRACT SIZE CORRESPONDS TO APPROXIMATELY 0.60% OF ASELSAN`S TOTAL ORDER BACKLOG.
COCA-COLA ICECEK (CCOLA.TI OP) IS TO ANNOUNCE ITS 1Q26 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TR MARKETS. FOR 1Q26, WE EXPECT NET SALES OF TRY 51,625MN (MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION: TRY 51,625MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, THE MEDIAN MARKET EXPECTATION IS TRY 8,650MN, WHILE OUR EXPECTATION IS TRY 8,480MN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO PRINT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 3,116MN (MEDIAN MARKET EXPECTATION: TRY 4,159MN).
VESTEL BEYAZ (VESBE.TI MP) REPORTED A NET LOSS OF TRY 1,362 MILLION IN 1Q26 (INCLUDING THE IMPACT OF TMS-29). DUE TO CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, THE CONTRACTION IN SALES VOLUME LED TO A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN REVENUE. INCREASING COST PRESSURES AND LIMITED PRICE ADJUSTMENTS FURTHER WEAKENED OPERATIONAL PROFITABILITY, MAKING THIS THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND THE NET LOSS.
THE COMPANY`S NET SALES (INCLUDING TMS-29 IMPACT) DECREASED BY 52.2% YOY TO TRY 9,943 MILLION IN 1Q26. BOTH DOMESTIC AND EXPORT SHIPMENTS DECLINED ON A YEARLY BASIS, REFLECTING INTENSIFIED COMPETITION IN KEY MARKETS. OPERATING MARGINS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO RISING COSTS AND LIMITED PRICING POWER. THE DEPRECIATION IN THE NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE REMAINING BELOW PERSISTENTLY HIGH DOMESTIC INFLATION WEAKENED COST COMPETITIVENESS AND REDUCED PRICING FLEXIBILITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SHARE OF LABOR COSTS IN REVENUE INCREASED DUE TO ANNUAL WAGE HIKES. IN ADDITION, RISING RAW MATERIAL AND LOGISTICS COSTS FOLLOWING SHIPMENT DISRUPTIONS IN THE RED SEA ADVERSELY AFFECTED PROFITABILITY. THE GROSS MARGIN CAME IN AT -2.4% (1Q25: 7.9%).
THE COMPANY REPORTED NEGATIVE EBITDA OF TRY 458 MILLION IN 1Q26, COMPARED TO A POSITIVE EBITDA OF TRY 917 MILLION IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR, INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION IN OPERATIONAL PROFITABILITY. THE DECLINE IN REVENUES, COUPLED WITH RISING COST PRESSURES, WAS THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND THE NEGATIVE EBITDA. THE EBITDA MARGIN STOOD AT -4.6% (1Q25: 4.4%).
THE COMPANY`S NET DEBT INCREASED FROM TRY 19,320 MILLION AS OF 03/2025 TO TRY 24,383 MILLION AS OF 03/2026. RISING LEVERAGE AND WEAKENING OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE EXERTED UPWARD PRESSURE ON NET LEVERAGE. THE NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO REACHED 15.3X (1Q25: 3.3X).
OVERALL, VESTEL BEYAZ ESYA`S 1Q26 RESULTS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION IN OPERATING PERFORMANCE. THE SHARP DECLINE IN REVENUES AND THE SHIFT TO NEGATIVE EBITDA, DRIVEN BY WEAK DEMAND AND COST PRESSURES, ALONGSIDE INCREASING LEVERAGE, INDICATE A WEAKENING FINANCIAL PROFILE. CHALLENGING DEMAND CONDITIONS AND INTENSE COMPETITION-PARTICULARLY FROM CHINESE MANUFACTURERS IN EUROPE-ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEIGHING ON THE NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK. IN LIGHT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS, WE EXPECT A NEGATIVE MARKET REACTION TO THE RESULTS.
SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR
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