MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED WEDNESDAY WITH BUYING INTEREST AT 11,157.96, RISING TO 11,588.86 DURING TRADING AS BUYING STRENGTHENED. THE BENCHMARK INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT 11,478.13, UP 4.12%. THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX ROSE BY 3.71%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX SHOWED A POSITIVE DIVERGENCE, UP 5.15%. ON A DAY WHEN ALL SECTOR INDICES ROSE, THE STRONGEST PERFORMANCE WAS SHOWN BY THE TRANSPORTATION INDEX WITH AN 8.58% INCREASE, WHILE THE MOST LIMITED INCREASE CAME FROM THE COMMUNICATIONS INDEX WITH 0.72%. THE VIOP DECEMBER FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX COMPLETED THE EVENING SESSION WITH A 0.51% GAIN COMPARED TO THE EARLY SESSION CLOSE. THE CBRT, IN ITS PRICE DEVELOPMENTS REPORT PUBLISHED YESTERDAY, STATED THAT THE MAIN TREND OF INFLATION IN OCTOBER REMAINED RELATIVELY FLAT, WITH ENERGY AND UNPROCESSED FOOD BEING THE DETERMINING FACTORS IN THE MONTHLY PRICE INCREASE. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT, PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S. ROSE BY 86,000 IN OCTOBER, COMPARED TO AN EXPECTED INCREASE OF 69,000. THE ISM SERVICES INDEX FELL TO 54.5, BELOW THE EXPECTED 54.8. FOLLOWING THE DEMOCRATS` VICTORY IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS, SECURING A MAJORITY IN BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS, U.S. STOCK MARKETS SAW STRONG GAINS, WITH THE DOW JONES INDEX RISING 3.03%, THE S&P 500 INDEX 1.58%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX 1.44%. EUROPEAN MARKETS ALSO SAW BUYING ACTIVITY, WITH THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX UP 2.32%, THE GERMAN DAX INDEX 2.22%, THE FRENCH CAC 40 INDEX 1.96%, AND THE UK FTSE 100 INDEX 1.79%. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE EUROZONE SHOWED ANNUAL INFLATION RISING TO 4% IN OCTOBER, IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS, UP FROM 3.8%. FOLLOWING THE NOVEMBER 3RD U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS, PRESIDENT TRUMP STATED THAT THE IRAN WAR HAD PLAYED A ROLE IN THE REPUBLICANS` ELECTION DEFEAT. THE EXPECTATION THAT THE RISK OF THE CONFLICT ESCALATING AFTER THE ELECTIONS HAS DECREASED PUT PRESSURE ON OIL PRICES, WITH BRENT CRUDE FALLING 8.67% YESTERDAY IN THE SPOT MARKET TO CLOSE AT USD94.54 PER BARREL. AS THE NEW DAY BEGINS, THE DOWNTREND IN OIL PRICES CONTINUES. BRENT CRUDE IS CURRENTLY TRADING AROUND USD93.8 IN THE SPOT MARKET, DOWN APPROXIMATELY 0.8%. IN U.S. FUTURES, THE DOW JONES IS SHOWING SLIGHT GAINS, AND THE S&P 500 IS EXPERIENCING LIMITED SELLING PRESSURE, WHILE THE NASDAQ 100 CONTRACT IS DIVERGING NEGATIVELY WITH A DROP EXCEEDING 1%. IN EUROPE, DAX AND EURO STOXX 50 FUTURES INDICATE A LIMITED POSITIVE OPENING. ASIAN MARKETS ARE OBSERVING A BEARISH OUTLOOK THIS MORNING, WITH SALES CONCENTRATED IN CHIP MANUFACTURERS AND COMPANIES PROVIDING EQUIPMENT FOR AI INFRASTRUCTURE. THE KOSPI IN SOUTH KOREA IS DOWN APPROXIMATELY 6%, AND THE NIKKEI IN JAPAN IS DOWN ABOUT 2%. THE HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX, HOWEVER, IS SHOWING A POSITIVE DIVERGENCE WITH A GAIN OF APPROXIMATELY 3%. ON THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA FOR THE DAY, DOMESTICALLY, THE CBRT`S WEEKLY RESERVES AND FOREIGN SECURITIES STATISTICS WILL BE FOLLOWED. GLOBALLY, THE BOE`S INTEREST RATE DECISION AND GOVERNOR BAILEY`S STATEMENTS, GERMAN FACTORY ORDERS, EUROZONE PRODUCER PRICES, WEEKLY U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS, AND SPEECHES BY ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE AND RICHMOND FED PRESIDENT BARKIN ARE NOTEWORTHY. IN THE UK, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE POLICY INTEREST RATE WILL BE INCREASED BY 25 BPS TO 4%. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START THE NEW DAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE MOMENTUM AND TO CONTINUE ITS UPTREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IF ANY PROFIT-TAKING IS ABSORBED.

COMPANY NEWS:

ALBARAKA TURK (ALBRK.TI N/C): WE EXPECT ALBARAKA TURK TO ANNOUNCE ITS 3Q26 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER THE TURKISH MARKET CLOSE. WE FORECAST NET INCOME TO DROP 47.3% QOQ, MAINLY DUE TO THE HIGH BASE EFFECT OF THE ROUGHLY TRY1.6BN ONE-OFF EQUITY-METHOD VALUATION GAIN BOOKED IN 2Q26. WE EXPECT THE NET PROFIT SHARE MARGIN TO NARROW TO 1.91%. A RECOVERY IN TRADING INCOME AND LOWER PROVISIONS LIMIT THE DECLINE. ON A YOY BASIS, WE EXPECT NET INCOME TO RISE 64.1%.

FORD OTOSAN (FROTO.TI OP) IS TO ANNOUNCE ITS 3Q26 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TR MARKETS. FOR 3Q26, WE EXPECT NET SALES OF TRY 229,391MN (MARKET AVERAGE EXPECTATION: TRY 228,846MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, THE AVERAGE MARKET EXPECTATION IS TRY 11,079MN, WHILE OUR EXPECTATION IS TRY 10,660MN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO PRINT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 7,904MN (AVG. MARKET EXPECTATION: TRY 7,233MN).

ISBANK (ISCTR.TI OP): WE EXPECT ISBANK TO ANNOUNCE ITS 3Q26 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER THE TURKISH MARKET CLOSE. WE FORECAST NET INCOME TO DECLINE 3.7% QOQ TO TRY9.3BN. LOWER INCOME FROM SUBSIDIARIES AND HIGHER PROVISIONS WEIGH ON EARNINGS, WHILE AN APPROXIMATELY 20% INCREASE IN SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST INCOME LIMITS THE DECLINE. WE EXPECT FEE INCOME AND OPERATING EXPENSES TO REMAIN FLAT.

MIGROS (MGROS.TI OP) IS TO ANNOUNCE ITS 3Q26 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TR MARKETS. FOR 3Q26, WE EXPECT NET SALES OF TRY 143,390MN (MARKET AVERAGE EXPECTATION: TRY 143,827MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, THE AVERAGE MARKET EXPECTATION IS TRY 11,476MN, WHILE OUR EXPECTATION IS TRY 11,447MN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO PRINT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 3,057MN (AVG. MARKET EXPECTATION: TRY 2,905MN).

KARDEMIR (KRDMD.TI MP) REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 269 MN IN 3Q26, 58% BELOW OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 646 MN AND 67% BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN ESTIMATE OF TRY 826 MN. EBITDA AMOUNTED TO TRY 2,298 MN IN 3Q26, COMING IN 6% BELOW OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 2,432 MN AND 7% BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN ESTIMATE OF TRY 2,468 MN. KARDEMIR’S NET SALES REVENUES STOOD AT TRY 21,136 MN IN 3Q26, 2% BELOW OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 21,672 MN AND 4% BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN ESTIMATE OF TRY 22,037 MN.

OYAK CEMENT (OYAKC.TI OP) HAS REPORTED NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PARENT COMPANY OF TRY 2,988MN IN 3Q26, EXCEEDING BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 2,299MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 2,350MN. NET INCOME DECLINED BY 32.1% YOY, WEIGHED DOWN BY WEAKER OPERATING PROFITABILITY, LOWER INVESTMENT INCOME, AND HIGHER MONETARY LOSSES. NET SALES DECLINED BY 11.1% YOY IN REAL TERMS TO TRY 17,763MN, BROADLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. STRONG SALES PERFORMANCE IN THE MARMARA AND AEGEAN REGIONS AND A 6% QOQ INCREASE IN CEMENT VOLUMES SUPPORTED A 7.9% SEQUENTIAL INCREASE IN REVENUES. EBITDA DECLINED BY 14.7% YOY TO TRY 5,080MN, BELOW OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 5,393MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 5,149MN. THE EBITDA MARGIN NARROWED BY 1.2PP YOY TO 28.6%, ALTHOUGH IT RECOVERED BY 4.0PP QOQ. DESPITE WEAKNESS IN READY-MIX CONCRETE OPERATIONS AND NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW, WE VIEW THE COMPANY`S STRONG NET CASH POSITION OF TRY 14,049MN AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENTS POSITIVELY. DESPITE ABOVE-EXPECTATION NET INCOME, WE EXPECT A NEUTRAL SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE SHARES DUE TO THE EBITDA SHORTFALL AND YOY CONTRACTION IN OPERATING PERFORMANCE (NEUTRAL).

PETKIM (PETKM.TI MP) HAS REPORTED A NET LOSS OF TRY 817 MN IN 3Q26, FALLING SHORT OF BOTH OUR NET PROFIT ESTIMATE OF TRY 456 MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN NET PROFIT ESTIMATE OF TRY 1,440 MN. EBITDA AMOUNTED TO TRY 299 MN IN 3Q26, COMING IN BELOW BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 2,178 MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN ESTIMATE OF TRY 592 MN. PETKIM’S NET SALES REVENUES STOOD AT TRY 32,001 MN IN 3Q26, 4% BELOW OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 33,340 MN AND BROADLY IN LINE WITH THE MARKET MEDIAN ESTIMATE OF TRY 32,103 MN.

SABANCI HOLDING (SAHOL.TI OP) HAS REPORTED CONSOLIDATED REVENUES OF TRY 252,942MN, EBITDA OF TRY 27,119MN AND NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PARENT COMPANY OF TRY 4,264MN IN 3Q26. NET INCOME CAME IN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 4,349MN, WHILE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TRY 881MN IN THE SAME QUARTER OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR. EXCLUDING THE APPROXIMATELY TRY 0.2BN NEGATIVE CLOSING IMPACT RELATED TO THE CARREFOURSA DIVESTMENT, NET INCOME REACHED TRY 4.5BN. THE STRONG YOY INCREASE IN NET INCOME WAS DRIVEN BY AN IMPROVED CONTRIBUTION FROM NON-BANK OPERATIONS, LOWER NET MONETARY LOSSES, AND REDUCED FINANCIAL AND TAX EXPENSES. CONSOLIDATED REVENUES DECLINED BY 29.8% YOY AND EBITDA CONTRACTED BY 17.4%, WHILE THE EBITDA MARGIN IMPROVED BY 1.6PP TO 10.7%. PORTFOLIO DIVESTMENTS AND WEAKER BANKING OPERATIONS WERE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF THE REVENUE CONTRACTION. BANKING EBITDA DECLINED BY 34.1% YOY, WHILE NON-BANK EBITDA INCREASED BY 11.1% TO TRY 13,474MN. EBITDA IN THE ENERGY AND FINANCIAL SERVICES SEGMENTS INCREASED BY 63.4% AND 16.8%, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE THE COMBINED NON-BANK EBITDA MARGIN IMPROVED BY 3.2PP TO 16.0%. IN THE ENERGY SEGMENT, THE GROWING CONTRIBUTION FROM RENEWABLE CAPACITY, FAVORABLE HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DISTRIBUTION OPERATIONS SUPPORTED PERFORMANCE, WHILE INTERNATIONAL CEMENT OPERATIONS, COMMERCIAL TYRE SALES AND DEMAND FOR COMPOSITES CONTRIBUTED POSITIVELY TO THE MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES SEGMENT. MEANWHILE, PRESSURE ON NET INTEREST MARGINS PERSISTED IN THE BANKING SEGMENT, WHICH RECORDED A NET LOSS OF TRY 1,062MN. WE VIEW THE HOLDING`S STANDALONE NET CASH POSITION OF TRY 31.9BN, ITS NON-BANK NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO OF 1.6X AND THE TRY 7BN SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAMME LAUNCHED IN OCTOBER POSITIVELY. DESPITE THE STRONG IMPROVEMENT IN NON-BANK OPERATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NET INCOME, WE EXPECT A NEUTRAL SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE SHARES DUE TO WEAKNESS IN BANKING OPERATIONS, THE CONTRACTION IN CONSOLIDATED EBITDA AND NET INCOME COMING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MARKET EXPECTATION (NEUTRAL).

SISECAM (SISE.TI OP) IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS 3Q26 FINANCIAL RESULTS TODAY AFTER THE CLOSE OF TURKISH MARKETS. IN 3Q26, WE EXPECT SISECAM TO POST NET SALES OF TRY 69,970MN (MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION: TRY 65,505MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, WHILE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION STANDS AT TRY 3,761MN, OUR ESTIMATE IS TRY 4,137MN. CONSEQUENTLY, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO REPORT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 3,603MN FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF THE YEAR (MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION: TRY 2,214MN).

TOFAS (TOASO.TI OP) IS TO ANNOUNCE ITS 3Q26 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TR MARKETS. FOR 3Q26, WE EXPECT NET SALES OF TRY 81,682MN (RT MARKET AVERAGE EXPECTATION: TRY 82,185MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, THE AVERAGE RT MARKET EXPECTATION IS TRY 1,885MN, WHILE OUR EXPECTATION IS TRY 1,813MN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO PRINT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 2,307MN (AVG. RT MARKET EXPECTATION: TRY 2,480).

TURK TELEKOM (TTKOM.TI OP) HAS REPORTED NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PARENT COMPANY OF TRY 7,678MN IN 3Q26, EXCEEDING BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 6,714MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF THE SAME AMOUNT. NET INCOME DECLINED BY 42.2% YOY, WEIGHED DOWN BY HIGHER FINANCIAL EXPENSES AND DEPRECIATION AND AMORTIZATION CHARGES. CONSOLIDATED REVENUES INCREASED BY 11.9% YOY IN REAL TERMS TO TRY 86,379MN, EXCEEDING OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 82,734MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 83,555MN. REVENUE GROWTH WAS SUPPORTED BY INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT) PROJECTS, FIXED BROADBAND, AND CORPORATE DATA OPERATIONS. EBITDA INCREASED BY 6.7% YOY TO TRY 36,883MN, EXCEEDING BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 35,327MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 35,768MN, WHILE THE EBITDA MARGIN NARROWED BY 2.1PP YOY TO 42.7%, REFLECTING THE HIGHER CONTRIBUTION OF RELATIVELY LOW-MARGIN PROJECT REVENUES. THE MOBILE SEGMENT RECORDED 670K NET SUBSCRIBER ADDITIONS, ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN MOBILE ARPU TRENDS. UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW INCREASED BY 39.4% YOY TO TRY 10.0BN, WHILE NET DEBT STOOD AT TRY 125.4BN. WE EXPECT A POSITIVE SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE SHARES, SUPPORTED BY BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED FINANCIAL RESULTS, IMPROVING MOBILE PERFORMANCE AND STRONG CASH GENERATION (POSITIVE).

VAKIFBANK (VAKBN.TI OP): WE EXPECT VAKIFBANK TO ANNOUNCE ITS 3Q26 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER THE TURKISH MARKET CLOSE. WE FORECAST NET INCOME TO FALL 5.2% QOQ, BUT RISE 20.2% YOY. SUPPORTED BY ROUGHLY TRY12BN OF ADDITIONAL INCOME FROM CPI-LINKED SECURITIES, WE EXPECT SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST INCOME TO INCREASE 28.2%. ON THE OTHER HAND, A MARKED RISE IN PROVISIONS, A SHARP DROP IN OTHER OPERATING INCOME, AND AN EFFECTIVE TAX RATE CLIMBING TO AROUND 30% WEIGH ON PROFITABILITY.

ZORLU ENERGY (ZOREN.TI UR) HAS REPORTED A NET LOSS OF TRY 1,673MN IN 3Q26 BASED ON ITS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION ACCOUNTING (IAS 29), COMPARED TO A NET PROFIT OF TRY 5,811MN IN 3Q25. THE NET LOSS WAS DRIVEN BY WEAK OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE (DECLINING REVENUES AND EBITDA), FINANCE EXPENSES OF TRY 4,300MN (3Q25: TRY 5,226MN) AND EXPENSES ARISING FROM INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES AMOUNTING TO TRY 485MN. ON THE OPERATIONAL SIDE, NET SALES REVENUE DECLINED BY 40.0% YOY TO TRY 7,646MN (3Q25: TRY 12,752MN), WHILE EBITDA DECREASED BY 57% YOY TO TRY 2,028MN. THE COMPANY`S GROSS PROFIT AND EBITDA MARGINS, WHICH STOOD AT 27.3% AND 36.6%, RESPECTIVELY, IN 3Q25, DECLINED TO 14.5% AND 26.5% IN 3Q26, RESPECTIVELY.

SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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YASAL UYARI

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