MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH - FRIDAY, MARCH 6, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED THURSDAY POSITIVELY, FOLLOWED A VOLATILE POSITIVE TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND ULTIMATELY CLOSED AT 13,078.93, UP 1.05%. AMONG SECTORAL INDICES, THE BANKING INDEX ROSE BY 1.33%, WHILE THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX SHOWED A POSITIVE DIVERGENCE, UP 2.41%. THE CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM, AND PLASTICS INDEX WAS THE MOST POSITIVE PERFORMER WITH A 4.16% GAIN, WHILE THE TRADE INDEX WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE WITH ITS 1.71% DECREASE. ACCORDING TO THE WEEKLY SECURITIES DATA PUBLISHED BY THE CBRT YESTERDAY, IN THE WEEK ENDING FEBRUARY 27TH, FOREIGN RESIDENTS MADE NET PURCHASES OF USD65.3 MILLION IN EQUITIES, ADJUSTED FOR PRICE AND FX RATE EFFECTS. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2026, FOREIGN INVESTORS HAVE MADE NET PURCHASES OF USD2.414 MILLION AT THE BIST. GLOBALLY, THURSDAY WAS A DAY OF SELLING IN EQUITY MARKETS. IN THE U.S., THE DOW JONES INDEX FELL 1.61%, THE S&P 500 INDEX 0.56%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX 0.26%. IN EUROPE, THE GERMAN DAX INDEX CLOSED THE DAY DOWN 1.61%, AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX LOST 1.46%. THE APRIL FUTURES CONTRACT FOR VIOP FELL 0.65% IN THE EVENING SESSION DUE TO GLOBAL SELLING PRESSURE. WHILE THE UPWARD MOMENTUM IN OIL PRICES SLOWED SOMEWHAT AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP INDICATED HE WOULD SOON ANNOUNCE STEPS TO LIMIT RISING ENERGY COSTS, BRENT CRUDE OIL REMAINS ABOVE THE USD80 LEVEL ON GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND SUPPLY-SIDE UNCERTAINTIES. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT`S ISSUANCE OF A TEMPORARY EXEMPTION ALLOWING INDIAN REFINERS TO CONTINUE PURCHASING RUSSIAN OIL IS SEEN AS A DEVELOPMENT THAT PARTIALLY EASES CONCERNS OVER GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY. ASIAN STOCK MARKETS ARE GIVING A MIXED PERFORMANCE THIS MORNING. IN FUTURES MARKETS, THE U.S. FUTURES ARE SHOWING LIMITED POSITIVE GAINS, WHILE EUROPEAN FUTURES ARE ALSO PRICED POSITIVELY. TODAY`S MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA INCLUDES THE TREASURY CASH BALANCE IN TURKIYE, AND EUROZONE GDP, ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE`S SPEECH, AND U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS DATA ABROAD. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START FRIDAY FLAT AND THEN EXPERIENCE INTRADAY VOLATILITY. SUPPORT: 12,900 - 12,800 RESISTANCE: 13,200 - 13,300.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE YESTERDAY, WEAKENING 0.07% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 43.9996, ENDING THE DAY AT A HIGH. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.11% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE POSITIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND YIELD FLUCTUATED WITHIN A RANGE OF 30.27%-30.54%, CLOSING THE DAY AT 30.36%, DOWN 33 BPS FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE.
COMPANY NEWS:
AKSA ENERGY (AKSEN.TI OP) REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 1,137MN IN 4Q25, EXCEEDING THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 969MN BY 17% AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 1,385MN BY 5% (4Q24: NET LOSS OF TRY 577MN). IN 4Q25, DESPITE THE INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT, THE INCREASE IN OPERATING PROFIT DRIVEN BY DISCIPLINED COST MANAGEMENT AND THE STRONG OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE IN BOTH DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN EBITDA. IN ADDITION, THE DECLINE IN NET MONETARY POSITION LOSSES AND THE EASING FX PRESSURE, WHICH RESULTED IN LOWER FINANCING COSTS, SUPPORTED THE BOTTOM LINE DESPITE THE INCREASE IN TAX EXPENSES.
AKSA ENERJI`S 4Q25 NET SALES CAME IN AT TRY 9,922MN, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 10,046MN AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 10,236MN, REPRESENTING A 12.4% YOY DECLINE. ELECTRICITY SALES EXCLUDING AFRICA AND ASIA INCREASED BY 34.7% IN FY25, REACHING 9,087 GWH, WHILE THE AVERAGE SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICE ROSE BY 17.2% YOY TO TRY 2,832/MWH IN 4Q25 (4Q24: TRY 2,415/MWH). DESPITE THE DECLINE IN REVENUES, SUCCESSFUL COST MANAGEMENT SUPPORTED PROFITABILITY, WITH THE GROSS MARGIN IMPROVING TO 25.0% FROM 24.4%.
INCLUDING THE EFFECTS OF IAS 29 INFLATION ACCOUNTING, EBITDA REACHED TRY 3,266MN IN 4Q25, ABOVE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 3,086MN AND BROADLY IN LINE WITH OUR TRY 3,284MN ESTIMATE, MARKING A 8.4% YOY INCREASE. EBITDA WAS SUPPORTED BY IMPROVED OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE BOTH DOMESTICALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. THE EBITDA MARGIN INCREASED TO 29.5% IN 4Q25 (4Q24: 23.9%). WITHIN NET SALES, ASIAN AND AFRICAN POWER PLANTS CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHARE. IN FY25, OUT OF TRY 42.3BN EBITDA, TRY 8.06BN CAME FROM ASIA (SUPPORTED BY THE FULL CAPACITY CONTRIBUTION OF THE TALIMERCAN POWER PLANT), TRY 4.6BN FROM AFRICA, AND TRY 29.6BN FROM TURKIYE.
NET DEBT INCREASED: DUE TO LOANS UTILIZED FOR ONGOING INVESTMENTS, THE COMPANY`S NET DEBT POSITION ROSE TO TRY 47.9BN IN FY25. ACCORDINGLY, THE NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO INCREASED TO 3.98X AS OF 2025.
KARDEMIR (KRDMD.TI MP) IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS 4Q25 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF TRADING ON BORSA ISTANBUL TODAY. WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO REPORT TRY 20,768MN IN NET SALES FOR 4Q25 (MARKET MEDIAN: TRY 16,083MN). AT THE EBITDA LEVEL, THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION STANDS AT TRY 2,021MN, WHILE OUR ESTIMATE IS TRY 1,557MN. WE FORECAST THE COMPANY TO POST A TRY 779MN NET PROFIT FOR THE QUARTER (MARKET MEDIAN NET PROFIT: TRY 175MN).
TURKCELL (TCELL.TI OP) REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 3,594MN IN 4Q25, REPRESENTING A 63.4% YOY INCREASE (4Q24: TRY 2,199MN). THE REPORTED NET PROFIT CAME IN ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 2,864MN, WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 3,752MN. THE IMPROVEMENT IN OPERATING PROFITABILITY DRIVEN BY EFFECTIVE OPERATIONAL COST MANAGEMENT WAS THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE INCREASE IN NET PROFIT. IN ADDITION, THE RISE IN NET OTHER INCOME AND GAINS FROM INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES ALSO SUPPORTED THE BOTTOM LINE DURING THE PERIOD.
TURKCELL (TCELL), GENERATED NET SALES REVENUES OF TRY 62,820MN IN 4Q25, MARKING A 6.9% YOY INCREASE. THE REPORTED REVENUES WERE IN LINE WITH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 62,698MN AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 62,110MN. REVENUE GROWTH WAS MAINLY SUPPORTED BY STRONG ARPU GROWTH DRIVEN BY SEGMENT-BASED PRICE ADJUSTMENTS AND UPSELLING CUSTOMERS TO HIGHER-TIER PACKAGES, AS WELL AS ONE OF THE HIGHEST POSTPAID NET SUBSCRIBER ADDITIONS IN THE COMPANY`S HISTORY. DOUBLE-DIGIT ARPU GROWTH WAS RECORDED IN BOTH THE MOBILE AND FIXED SEGMENTS, ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE POSTPAID SUBSCRIBER BASE. IN 4Q25, THE COMPANY ACHIEVED 2.4 MILLION POSTPAID MOBILE NET ADDITIONS, THE HIGHEST OF THE PAST 26 YEARS, BRINGING THE POSTPAID SUBSCRIBER RATIO TO 81%. DURING THE SAME PERIOD, 119 THOUSAND TURKCELL FIBER SUBSCRIBERS WERE ADDED, WHILE TOTAL NET FIBER SUBSCRIBER ADDITIONS REACHED 190 THOUSAND, INCLUDING WHOLESALE OPERATIONS. DESPITE COMPETITIVE PRESSURES, STRONG ARPU GROWTH CONTINUED, WITH MOBILE ARPU (EXCLUDING M2M) INCREASING BY 10.6% IN 2025 AND INDIVIDUAL FIBER ARPU RISING BY 15.4%, WHILE IN 4Q25 MOBILE ARPU GREW BY 5.4% AND INDIVIDUAL FIBER ARPU BY 10.3%.
INCLUDING THE EFFECTS OF IAS 29 INFLATION ACCOUNTING, EBITDA INCREASED BY 10.8% YOY TO TRY 25,792MN IN 4Q25, SUPPORTED BY STRONG REVENUE GROWTH. THE REPORTED EBITDA CAME IN ABOVE BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 24,776MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 24,496MN. THE EBITDA MARGIN REACHED 43.3% IN 4Q25 (4Q24: 41.7%).
THE COMPANY`S NET DEBT POSITION DECLINED. NET DEBT, WHICH STOOD AT TRY 20.7BN AS OF SEPTEMBER 2025, HAD DECREASED TO TRY 14.9BN BY FY25. ACCORDINGLY, THE NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO DECLINED TO 0.14X AS OF 2025.
2025 PERFORMANCE: IN 2025, EXCLUDING IFRIC 12 EFFECTS, THE COMPANY INCREASED ITS REVENUES BY 10.1% YOY TO TRY 229.0BN, IN LINE WITH ITS ~10% REVENUE GROWTH GUIDANCE. THE INCREASE IN REVENUES WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY STRONG ARPU GROWTH RESULTING FROM SEGMENT-BASED PRICE ADJUSTMENTS AND UPSELLING STRATEGIES, AS WELL AS ONE OF THE HIGHEST POSTPAID NET SUBSCRIBER ADDITIONS IN THE COMPANY`S HISTORY. THE EBITDA MARGIN REACHED 45.8%, EXCEEDING THE COMPANY`S GUIDANCE RANGE OF 42-43%.
2026 OUTLOOK: TURKCELL EXPECTS REVENUE GROWTH OF 5-7% AND AN EBITDA MARGIN OF 40-42% IN 2026, WHILE TARGETING OPERATIONAL EXPENSES TO REVENUE RATIO OF AROUND 25%. IN ADDITION, THE DATA CENTER AND CLOUD BUSINESS SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE REVENUE GROWTH OF 18-20%. THESE PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION OF INFLATION AT AROUND 23% IN 2026.
SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR
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YASAL UYARI
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