MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH - MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED FRIDAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE TREND, YET FAILED TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION ABOVE 13,600.00. AFTER RETREATING TO 13,402.61 AMID INCREASED SELLING PRESSURE IN THE AFTERNOON, THE INDEX RECOVERED SOME OF ITS INTRADAY LOSSES WITH BUYING ACTIVITY, CLOSING THE DAY AT 13,521.96, DOWN 0.49%. IN SECTORAL INDICES, THE BANKING INDEX FELL BY 0.41%, WHILE THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX LOST 0.38%. THE TRANSPORTATION INDEX WAS THE MOST POSITIVE PERFORMER WITH A 1.24% GAIN, WHILE THE HOLDING AND INVESTMENT INDEX WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE WITH A 1.56% LOSS. ON A WEEKLY BASIS, THE BIST 100 INDEX LOST 2.29%, ENDING ITS FIVE-WEEK WINNING STREAK. THE BANKING INDEX FELL BY 5.81% LAST WEEK, WHILE THE DECLINE IN THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX WAS LIMITED TO 2.09%. THE FEBRUARY FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE VIOP INDEX ROSE BY 0.60% IN FRIDAY`S EVENING SESSION. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT, FRIDAY WAS A DAY OF HIGH RISK APPETITE IN EQUITY MARKETS. MODERATE STATEMENTS FOLLOWING THE U.S.-IRAN TALKS AND THE DECISION BY BOTH COUNTRIES TO CONTINUE NEGOTIATIONS BROUGHT BUYING TO THE STOCK MARKETS. THE DOW JONES INDEX ROSE BY 2.47%, THE S&P 500 INDEX BY 1.97%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX BY 2.18%. THE GERMAN DAX INDEX GAINED 0.94%. AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS, THE OUTLOOK FOR ASIAN STOCK MARKETS IS POSITIVE. FOLLOWING THE SNAP GENERAL ELECTION HELD IN JAPAN OVER THE WEEKEND, PRIME MINISTER TAKAICHI SANAE WON BY A HISTORIC MARGIN. THE NIKKEI, WHICH STARTED THE WEEK WITH STRONG GAINS AFTER TAKAICHI`S VICTORY, IS TRADING THIS MORNING WITH A GAIN OF OVER 4%. THE OUTLOOK FOR FUTURES IN THE U.S. AND EUROPE IS LIMITEDLY POSITIVE. WHILE THERE IS NO MAJOR DOMESTIC DATA RELEASE THAT WILL AFFECT MARKET TRENDS TODAY, THE EUROZONE SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX AND SPEECHES BY FED OFFICIALS CHRISTOPHER WALLER AND RAPHAEL BOSTIC STAND OUT GLOBALLY. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START THE WEEK POSITIVELY, SUPPORTED BY POSITIVE GLOBAL SENTIMENT, AND THEN EXPERIENCE SOME VOLATILE MOVEMENTS. SUPPORT: 13,400 - 13,300 RESISTANCE: 13,600 - 13,700.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE YESTERDAY, WEAKENING 0.17% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 43.6137. THE CURRENCY ALSO DEPRECIATED BY 0.23% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE POSITIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND YIELD FLUCTUATED BETWEEN A RANGE OF 29.93%-30.05%, CLOSING THE DAY AT 29.96%, DOWN 11 BPS FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE.
COMPANY NEWS:
FORD OTOSAN (FROTO.TI OP) IS TO ANNOUNCE ITS 4Q25 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TR MARKETS. FOR 4Q25, WE EXPECT NET SALES OF TRY 230,621MN (MARKET AVERAGE EXPECTATION: TRY 225,930MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, THE AVERAGE MARKET EXPECTATION IS TRY 13,221MN, WHILE OUR EXPECTATION IS TRY 13,810MN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO PRINT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 9,120MN (AVG. MARKET EXPECTATION: TRY 8,993MN).
ISBANK (ISCTR.TI OP) HAS REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 23.4BN IN 4Q25, UP 65% QOQ, SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDING BOTH OUR ESTIMATE BY 46.7% AND THE MARKET CONSENSUS BY 45%. FOLLOWING THIS STRONG QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE, THE BANK`S FULL-YEAR 2025 NET PROFIT INCREASED BY 48% YOY TO TRY 67.4BN. ISBANK CLOSED THE YEAR WITH A RETURN ON EQUITY OF 18.6% AND A RETURN ON ASSETS OF 1.7%. NET INTEREST INCOME INCREASED BY 51.3% QOQ, WHILE SWAP COSTS ROSE BY 9.5% OVER THE SAME PERIOD. AS A RESULT, SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST INCOME SURGED BY 66.8% QOQ. THE SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST MARGIN EXPANDED BY 115 BPS QOQ TO 3.24%, WHILE THE FULL-YEAR 2025 NET INTEREST MARGIN STOOD AT 2.0%. ON ASSET QUALITY, THE NPL RATIO INCREASED FROM 2.7% TO 3.2% QOQ, WHILE EXPECTED CREDIT LOSS PROVISIONS ROSE BY 7.3% QOQ. ACCORDINGLY, THE COVERAGE RATIO FOR STAGE 3 LOANS STOOD AT 63.3%. NET COST OF RISK WAS RECORDED AT 2.79% IN 4Q25, BRINGING THE FULL-YEAR 2025 FIGURE TO 2.21%.
TOFAS (TOASO.TI OP) IS TO ANNOUNCE ITS 4Q25 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TR MARKETS. FOR 4Q25, WE EXPECT NET SALES OF TRY 122,901MN (MARKET AVERAGE EXPECTATION: TRY 120,946MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, THE AVERAGE MARKET EXPECTATION IS TRY 3,396MN, WHILE OUR EXPECTATION IS TRY 3,242MN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO PRINT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 3,337MN (AVG. MARKET EXPECTATION: TRY 2,852MN).
TUPRAS (TUPRS.TI OP) REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TL 6,750MN IN 4Q25 UNDER INFLATION-ADJUSTED (TMS-29) FINANCIALS. THIS FIGURE CAME 31% ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE OF TL 5,171MN AND 34% ABOVE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TL 5,037MN. THE COMPANY GENERATED EBITDA OF TL 14,245MN IN 4Q25. THE RESULT WAS BROADLY IN LINE WITH OUR ESTIMATE (1% BELOW), WHILE COMING 8% UNDER THE MARKET MEDIAN. TUPRAS POSTED NET SALES OF TL 205,953MN IN 4Q25, 7% BELOW OUR ESTIMATE AND 2% UNDER THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION.
TUPRAS (TUPRS.TI OP) HAS SUBMITTED FOR GENERAL ASSEMBLY APPROVAL THE DISTRIBUTION OF A TOTAL DIVIDEND OF TRY 33BN UNDER ITS DIVIDEND POLICY, TO BE PAID IN TWO INSTALLMENTS. ACCORDINGLY, THE FIRST TRANCHE OF TRY 20BN IS PLANNED TO BE PAID ON MARCH 16, 2026, WHILE THE SECOND TRANCHE OF TRY 13BN IS SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 30, 2026. THE TOTAL GROSS DIVIDEND AMOUNTS TO TRY 17.13 PER SHARE (NET: TRY 14.56), IMPLYING AN APPROXIMATE DIVIDEND YIELD OF 7.7% BASED ON THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE.
VAKIFBANK (VAKBN.TI OP) IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS 4Q25 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TURKISH MARKET TODAY. WE EXPECT THE BANK TO REPORT A 4Q25 NET PROFIT OF TRY 23.4BN, UP 96% QOQ. IN LINE WITH THIS PERFORMANCE, WE ESTIMATE ROE TO REACH 34% QOQ AND 26% ON A FULL-YEAR BASIS. THE KEY DRIVER BEHIND THE INCREASE IN NET PROFIT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SHARP QOQ IMPROVEMENT OF 250 BPS IN THE SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST MARGIN, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A STRONG 110% QOQ INCREASE IN SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST INCOME. THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE STRONG INCREASE IN NET INTEREST INCOME IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CATCH-UP EFFECT IN CPI-LINKED SECURITIES INCOME, FOLLOWING THE BANK`S RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE CPI ASSUMPTION EARLIER IN THE YEAR. ACCORDINGLY, WE FORECAST CPI-LINKED SECURITIES INCOME TO INCREASE BY 83% QOQ. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE EXPECT A SLIGHT DECLINE IN FEE AND COMMISSION INCOME, WHILE OPERATING EXPENSES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY 11.5% QOQ, MAINLY DRIVEN BY YEAR-END PERSONNEL EXPENSES, PARTIALLY WEIGHING ON PROFITABILITY. WE EXPECT THE BANK TO SET ASIDE AROUND TRY 4BN IN FREE PROVISIONS IN THE QUARTER, WHILE CREDIT PROVISIONS ARE LIKELY TO RECORD A LIMITED INCREASE. ACCORDINGLY, WE FORECAST TOTAL ECL PROVISIONS TO INCREASE BY 30% QOQ, WITH THE FULL-YEAR NET COST OF RISK ESTIMATED AT 133 BPS. ON THE TAX SIDE, WE EXPECT A STRONG 330% QOQ INCREASE, DRIVEN BY REGULATORY CHANGES.
JANUARY 2026 FOREIGN ACTIVITY AT BORSA ISTANBUL: IN JANUARY 2026 FOREIGN INVESTORS WERE NET BUYERS OF TURKISH EQUITIES AT BORSA ISTANBUL TO THE TUNE OF USD 1,993.9MN. AMONG THE TOP-FIVE MOST BOUGHT STOCKS: AKBANK (AKBNK.TI OP) ON USD 266.7MN, AS FOLLOWED BY KOC HOLDING (KCHOL.TI OP), YAPI KREDI (YKBNK.TI OP), TUPRAS (TUPRS.TI OP) AND GARANTI BBVA (GARAN.TI OP). MEANWHILE, THE TOP-FIVE MOST SOLD STOCKS WERE: SASA POLYESTER (SASA.TI N/C) ON USD 141.6MN, BEING THE MOST ACTIVE, FOLLOWED BY PASIFIK EURASIA LOJISTIK (PASEU.TI N/C), BIM (BIMAS.TI OP), GEN ILAC (GENIL.TI N/C) AND TERA YATIRIM (TERA.TI N/C).
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