MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH - WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED TUESDAY POSITIVELY, CONTINUING ITS UPTREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT 13,175.74, UP 3.73%. ON THE SECTORAL INDICES SIDE, THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX ROSE BY 3.67%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX WAS UP 4.63%. THE MINING INDEX GAVE THE STRONGEST PERFORMANCE WITH A 7.43% INCREASE. ACCORDING TO THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX DATA RELEASED YESTERDAY, SEASONALLY AND CALENDAR-ADJUSTED PRODUCTION DECREASED BY 2.8% IN JANUARY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH. ON AN ANNUAL BASIS, PRODUCTION CONTRACTED BY 1.8%. IN GLOBAL MARKETS YESTERDAY, A MIXED PICTURE WAS OBSERVED IN U.S. STOCK MARKETS. THE DOW JONES INDEX FELL BY 0.07% AND THE S&P 500 INDEX BY 0.21%, WHILE THE NASDAQ INDEX CLOSED THE DAY UP 0.01%. ON THE EUROPEAN SIDE, RISK APPETITE REMAINED STRONG, WITH THE GERMAN DAX INDEX RISING 2.39% AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX INCREASING BY 2.73%. THE APRIL FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX FELL BY 0.69% IN THE EVENING SESSION. YESTERDAY, PRESIDENT TRUMP STATED THAT THEY HAVE NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT TALKS WITH IRAN, BUT THAT THIS DEPENDS ON IRAN MAKING SIGNIFICANT CONCESSIONS. THE TEHRAN ADMINISTRATION, HOWEVER, STATED THAT THEY ARE NOT RECEPTIVE TO MESSAGES OF NEGOTIATION AS LONG AS THE ATTACKS CONTINUE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETALIATE. ASIAN STOCK MARKETS ARE GIVING A MIXED PERFORMANCE AT THE START OF THE NEW DAY. THE SOUTH KOREAN KOSPI INDEX IS SHOWING GAINS APPROACHING 3%, WHILE THE JAPANESE NIKKEI INDEX IS SEEING GAINS EXCEEDING 2%. IN FUTURES MARKETS, THE U.S. INDEX FUTURES ARE POSITIVE, WHILE EUROPEAN INDEX FUTURES ARE SHOWING A FLAT TO NEGATIVE OUTLOOK. THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA FOR THE DAY INCLUDES JANUARY RETAIL SALES DATA DOMESTICALLY, AND CPI DATA FROM GERMANY AND THE U.S. GLOBALLY. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE GAINS AND THEN EXPERIENCE VOLATILE INTRADAY TRADING. SUPPORT: 13,000 - 12,900 RESISTANCE: 13,300 - 13,400.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS POSITIVE YESTERDAY, GAINING 0.07% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 44.0373. THE CURRENCY ALSO DEPRECIATED BY 0.18% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE POSITIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND YIELD FLUCTUATED BETWEEN A RANGE OF 31.31%-31.50%, CLOSING THE DAY AT 31.47%, DOWN 87 BPS FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE.
HEADLINES:
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CONTRACTED BY 2.8% MONTH-ON-MONTH AND 1.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN JANUARY. THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN GROWTH DATA AND PRODUCTION INDICATORS CONTINUES… ACCORDING TO INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (IP) INDEX DATA, SEASONALLY AND CALENDAR-ADJUSTED PRODUCTION FELL BY 2.8% IN JANUARY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH. ANNUAL PRODUCTION CONTRACTED BY 1.8%. WE HAD EXPECTED A LIMITED RECOVERY IN THE ANNUAL DATA DUE TO THE BASE EFFECT. THIS RECOVERY MATERIALIZED AT 0.3 PERCENTAGE POINTS. THE SHARP DECLINE IN THE MONTHLY DATA LIMITED OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR RECOVERY IN THE ANNUAL DATA. WHEN IP IS ASSESSED ALONGSIDE THE LAST QUARTER`S GDP GROWTH DATA, WE SEE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF TIGHT MONETARY POLICY ON PRODUCTION DATA. WHILE THE TURKISH ECONOMY GREW BY 3.6% IN 2025, THE INCREASE IN IP REMAINED AT 2.9%. SERVICES AND CONSTRUCTION WERE THE DRIVING FORCES OF GROWTH, WHILE PRODUCTION MOMENTUM LAGGED BEHIND. MONETARY TIGHTENING AND MACRO-PRUDENTIAL MEASURES CONTINUE TO ADJUST TOTAL DEMAND IN LINE WITH DISINFLATION BY PULLING THE PRODUCTION LEVEL BELOW ITS POTENTIAL. DATA FROM THE FIRST MONTH OF THE YEAR CONFIRMS THIS SITUATION. ALTHOUGH PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN THE REAL ECONOMY DO NOT RESPOND IMMEDIATELY TO MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS, THIS ADJUSTMENT WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY. INFLATION KEEPING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BUOYANT, LED BY SERVICES, LIMITS THE SIDE EFFECTS OF TIGHT MONETARY POLICY ON GROWTH. HOWEVER, WHILE BUILDING THE DISINFLATION PROCESS, POSITIVE SUPPLY-SIDE SHOCKS ARE ALSO IMPORTANT ALONGSIDE CURBING DEMAND. INCREASES ON THE PRODUCTION SIDE CAN BE CONSIDERED POSITIVE SHOCKS AS THEY SUPPORT GROWTH WHILE ALSO HAVING A DOWNWARD EFFECT ON INFLATION. IN THIS CONTEXT, POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN IP DATA CAN BE SAID TO BE MORE IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF THE SUSTAINABILITY AND HEALTH OF GROWTH. KEY INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, SUCH AS THE PURCHASING MANAGERS` INDEX (PMI), STILL POINT TO CONTRACTION IN THE PRODUCTION/ORDER CYCLE. IN PARTICULAR, UNCERTAINTY IN KEY EXPORT MARKETS, VOLATILITY IN COSTS, AND DECLINING RISK APPETITE STAND OUT AS MACRO DYNAMICS WEIGHING ON PRODUCTION AND ORDERS. TWO RECENT DEVELOPMENTS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT IP IN 2026. THE FIRST IS THE INCLUSION OF PRODUCTS MANUFACTURED IN TURKEY UNDER THE `MADE IN EU` SCOPE. THIS SITUATION, WHICH WILL INCREASE COMPETITION BEYOND THE CUSTOMS UNION, WILL PARTICULARLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE GROWTH OF EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES. THE SECOND IS THE INSTABILITY AND ARMED CONFLICTS IN OUR REGION AS A RESULT OF GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS. THIS SITUATION, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES ENERGY COSTS, MAY ALSO DISRUPT PRODUCTION ACTIVITY. IN THIS CONTEXT, OUR RECOVERY EXPECTATIONS IN THE BASE SCENARIO MAY BE DELAYED DEPENDING ON HOW DEVELOPMENTS UNFOLD. FOR INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES, THE MOST PROMINENT RISKS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE THE INCREASE IN FINANCING COSTS DUE TO TIGHT MONETARY POLICY AND MATURITY/EXCHANGE RATE MISMATCHES. THE POSSIBILITY OF A RATE CUT BY THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE (CBRT) THIS WEEK HAS BEEN SHELVED. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND THE TREND IN INFLATION ARE PROMPTING DECISION-MAKERS TO ADOPT A MORE CAUTIOUS STANCE ON INTEREST RATE CUTS. THE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IS QUITE DETERMINED TO ACHIEVE DISINFLATION WITHOUT SACRIFICING PRODUCTION AND GROWTH. ALTHOUGH DEMAND-SIDE PRESSURES ARE LIMITED, THEY REMAIN STRONG. WITH BOTH DEMAND AND SUPPLY-SIDE PRESSURES LIMITED, NO ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE SHOCKS ARE NEEDED FOR DISINFLATION TO CONTINUE. IN PARTICULAR, UPWARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE CBRT`S ASSUMPTIONS COULD LEAD TO A TIGHTER MONETARY STANCE IN THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION. ASSUMING THAT GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND ENERGY SHOCKS ARE TEMPORARY, WE FORECAST THAT THE PERFORMANCE OF INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES IN 2026 WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE INFLATION. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE OR US-IRAN-ISRAEL FRONTS WOULD EXTEND THE MOMENTUM SEEN IN EQUITIES IN FEBRUARY.
COMPANY NEWS:
BIM (BIMAS.TI OP) REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 6,889MN IN 4Q25, WHICH WAS ABOVE THE RT MARKET CONSENSUS EXPECTATION OF TRY 4,383MN, AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 4,022MN, MARKING A 36.2% YOY INCREASE (4Q24: TRY 5,057MN). THE NET PROFIT MARGIN ROSE BY 0.7 P.P. YOY, STANDING AT 3.7% IN 4Q25. BIM`S EBITDA REACHED TRY 12,820MN IN 4Q25, REPRESENTING AN 40.6% YOY INCREASE AND ABOVE THE MARKET CONSENSUS OF TRY 9,826MN (SEKER: TRY 8,920MN). IN TERMS OF REVENUE PERFORMANCE, THE COMPANY REPORTED NET SALES OF TRY 185,963MN IN 4Q25 (4Q24: TRY 168,939MN), CORRESPONDING TO A REAL YOY INCREASE OF 10% INCLUDING THE IMPACT OF IAS 29 (RT MARKET CONSENSUS: TRY 183,573MN SEKER: TRY 182,373MN).
2026 EXPECTATIONS: BIM EXPECTS SALES GROWTH OF APPROXIMATELY 6% (±2%) FOR 2026 (INC. IAS-29). ITS EBITDA MARGIN EXPECTATION, INCLUDING THE IFRS-16 EFFECT, IS AROUND 6.5% (±0.5%). THE CAPEX TO SALES RATIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN 3.0% - 3.5% (POSITIVE).
EMLAK KONUT REIT (EKGYO.TI N/C) HAS ANNOUNCED THE SIGNING OF A REVENUE-SHARING PROTOCOL TO MANAGE THE PROJECT DEVELOPMENT, TENDER, AND SALES PROCESSES FOR THE 93,025.36 M² LAND PARCELS OWNED BY AYDIN GOVERNORSHIP / AYDIN YIKOB (INVESTMENT MONITORING AND COORDINATION PRESIDENCY) AYDIN THERMAL TOURISM AND GEOTHERMAL SYSTEMS INC. (AYTER) IN THE ORTA QUARTER, EFELER DISTRICT, AYDIN PROVINCE. UNDER THIS PROTOCOL, 80% OF THE NET REVENUE GENERATED FROM THE PROJECT WILL BELONG TO THE AYDIN GOVERNORSHIP / AYDIN YIKOB (INVESTMENT MONITORING AND COORDINATION PRESIDENCY) AYDIN THERMAL TOURISM AND GEOTHERMAL SYSTEMS INC. (AYTER), WHILE 20% WILL BE ALLOCATED TO THE COMPANY.
GARANTI BBVA (GARAN.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT NEWS HAS BEEN PUBLISHED ON VARIOUS PLATFORMS REGARDING THE POSSIBLE SALE OF ITS ROMANIA-BASED SUBSIDIARY, GARANTI BANK S.A. THE BANK STATED THAT NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE REGARDING THE EXECUTION OR COMPLETION OF ANY SUCH TRANSACTION. GARANTI BBVA ALSO HAS NOTED THAT IF A DECISION IS MADE TO PROCEED WITH A TRANSACTION CONCERNING THE SALE OF ITS ROMANIAN SUBSIDIARY, THE NECESSARY DISCLOSURES WILL BE MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE REGULATIONS.
KARDEMIR (KRDMD.TI MP): ACCORDING TO INFLATION-ADJUSTED FINANCIALS (TMS-29), THE COMPANY REPORTED A TRY 683MN NET LOSS IN 4Q25. THE REPORTED NET LOSS CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW BOTH OUR EXPECTATION OF A TRY 779MN NET PROFIT AND THE MARKET CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF A TRY 175MN NET PROFIT.
4Q25 EBITDA CAME IN AT TRY 2,362MN, WHICH WAS 51.7% ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 1,557MN AND 16.9% HIGHER THAN THE MARKET CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF TRY 2,021MN.
NET SALES REVENUES WERE REPORTED AT TRY 16,420MN, COMING IN 21% BELOW OUR FORECAST, BUT 2% ABOVE THE MARKET CONSENSUS ESTIMATE.
ULKER (ULKER.TI OP) REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 81MN IN 4Q25, SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW BOTH THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 1,112MN AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 1,100MN (4Q24: NET PROFIT OF TRY 3,563MN). THE DECLINE IN PROFITABILITY WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY WEAKER OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE DUE TO RISING COSTS AND ELEVATED FINANCIAL EXPENSES, WHICH WEIGHED ON BOTTOM-LINE RESULTS IN THE QUARTER.
THE COMPANY`S NET SALES DECLINED BY 6.6% YOY TO TRY 27,454MN IN 4Q25 (4Q24: TRY 29,379MN). NET SALES CAME IN BELOW BOTH THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 28,646MN AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 29,081MN. INCLUDING THE IMPACT OF IAS 29 INFLATION ACCOUNTING, NET SALES INCREASED 1.7% YOY TO TRY 111,905MN IN FY25. HOWEVER, EBITDA DECLINED BY 9.8% YOY TO TRY 18,416MN OVER THE SAME PERIOD ON AN INFLATION-ADJUSTED BASIS. DESPITE THE LIMITED GROWTH IN REVENUES, THE DECLINE IN GROSS PROFITABILITY INDICATES THAT THE COMPANY FACED SIGNIFICANT COST PRESSURES DURING THE PERIOD, LIKELY STEMMING FROM HIGHER RAW MATERIAL COSTS AND CHALLENGES IN PRICING STRATEGIES, WHICH CONSTRAINED MARGIN MANAGEMENT.
ON A CATEGORY BASIS, BISCUIT SEGMENT NET SALES DECLINED BY 4.1% YOY TO TRY 39,261MN IN FY25. THE CHOCOLATE SEGMENT GAVE A STRONGER PERFORMANCE, WITH NET SALES INCREASING 5.6% YOY TO TRY 58,468MN. THE CAKE CATEGORY ALSO RECORDED MODEST GROWTH, WITH NET SALES RISING 2.6% YOY TO TRY 8,643MN. IN TERMS OF SALES VOLUMES, BISCUIT VOLUMES INCREASED TO 346 THOUSAND TONS (FY24: 338 THOUSAND TONS), WHILE CHOCOLATE VOLUMES DECLINED TO 209 THOUSAND TONS (FY24: 227 THOUSAND TONS). CAKE VOLUMES REMAINED BROADLY STABLE AT 59 THOUSAND TONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS YEAR. THIS PERFORMANCE SUGGESTS DIVERGING DEMAND DYNAMICS ACROSS PRODUCT GROUPS, PARTICULARLY HIGHLIGHTING THAT VALUE-BASED GROWTH IN THE CHOCOLATE SEGMENT CONTINUED DESPITE THE CONTRACTION IN VOLUMES.
INCLUDING IAS 29 EFFECTS, EBITDA DECLINED BY 35.6% YOY TO TRY 3,407MN IN 4Q25. THE INCREASE IN COST OF GOODS SOLD AND OPERATING EXPENSES EXERTED PRESSURE ON OPERATIONAL PROFITABILITY AND WAS A KEY DRIVER OF THE DECLINE IN EBITDA. RISING PRODUCTION COSTS AND OPERATING EXPENSES NEGATIVELY AFFECTED MARGINS, RESULTING IN WEAKER OPERATING PROFITABILITY. THE REPORTED EBITDA FIGURE CAME IN BELOW OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 5,291MN AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 4,841MN. IN 4Q25, ULKER`S GROSS MARGIN DECLINED TO 24.9%, EBITDA MARGIN TO 12.4%, AND NET PROFIT MARGIN TO 0.3%, COMPARED WITH 29.2%, 18.0%, AND 12.1%, RESPECTIVELY, IN 4Q24.
NET DEBT DECLINED… THE COMPANY`S NET DEBT DECREASED FROM TRY 40,590MN AT THE END OF 3Q25 TO TRY 34,020MN. ACCORDINGLY, THE NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO IMPROVED TO 1.85X AS OF FY25, INDICATING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE COMPANY`S LEVERAGE METRICS.
VAKIFBANK (VAKBN.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT, IN ORDER TO STRENGTHEN FINANCIAL INCLUSION, INCREASE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY, AND CONTRIBUTE TO ITS MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES THROUGH THE OFFERING OF INNOVATIVE BANKING PRODUCTS IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING GLOBAL TREND OF DIGITALIZATION, THE BANK`S BOARD OF DIRECTORS HAS AUTHORIZED THE HEAD OFFICE TO CARRY OUT THE NECESSARY APPLICATIONS AND OTHER PROCEDURES FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A DIGITAL DEPOSIT BANK IN WHICH THE BANK WILL HOLD A 99.60% STAKE.



SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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YASAL UYARI

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