MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH – WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2026

OUTLOOK:

THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED TUESDAY WITH BUYING INTEREST AT 11,758.85, RISING TO 11,786.58, BUT FAILING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTRADAY GAINS DUE TO INCREASED SELLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BENCHMARK INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT 11,661.86, DOWN 0.43%. THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX FELL BY 0.96%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX CLOSED DOWN 0.03%. AMONG THE SECTOR INDICES, THE COMMUNICATIONS INDEX SHOWED THE STRONGEST PERFORMANCE WITH A 5.31% INCREASE, WHILE THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDEX WAS THE BIGGEST LOSER WITH A 3.94% DECREASE. THE VIOP DECEMBER FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX COMPLETED TUESDAY`S EVENING SESSION DOWN 0.06% COMPARED TO THE EARLY SESSION`S CLOSING. DOMESTICALLY, THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX INCREASED BY 2.1% MONTHLY AND 2.6% ANNUALLY IN SEPTEMBER. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT, U.S. CPI ROSE 0.4% IN OCTOBER, COMPARED TO A MARKET EXPECTATION OF 0.3%, WHILE CORE CPI INCREASED BY 0.3%, COMPARED TO AN EXPECTATION OF 0.2%. ANNUAL CHANGES WERE NOT RELEASED AS DATA COULD NOT BE COLLECTED LAST OCTOBER DUE TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. THE HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED INFLATION FIGURES AND FED BOARD MEMBER WALLER`S INDICATION THAT A 50 BPS INTEREST RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER COULD BE CONSIDERED LED TO SELL-OFFS IN U.S. STOCK MARKETS. THE DOW JONES INDEX FELL 0.30%, THE S&P 500 INDEX FELL 0.38%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX FELL 0.74%. IN EUROPEAN MARKETS, THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX ROSE 0.68%, THE GERMAN DAX INDEX ROSE 0.31%, AND THE FRENCH CAC 40 INDEX ROSE 0.55%, WHILE THE UK FTSE 100 INDEX FELL 0.29%. ON THE GEOPOLITICAL FRONT, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE RUBIO STATED THAT SANCTIONS AND THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WERE EFFECTIVE AND THAT HE DID NOT SEE A NEED FOR A LARGE-SCALE MILITARY OPERATION AGAINST IRAN. BRENT CRUDE OIL CLOSED YESTERDAY DOWN 1.03% AT USD90.98 PER BARREL IN THE SPOT MARKET, BUT RECOVERED THIS MORNING TO USD91.27, UP 0.33%. BUYING IN CHIP STOCKS IS LEADING IN ASIA, WITH THE KOSPI INDEX RISING APPROXIMATELY 2.5% AND THE NIKKEI 225 INDEX UP ABOUT 1.5%. THE HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX, HOWEVER, IS DIVERGING NEGATIVELY, DOWN ABOUT 0.6%. U.S. FUTURES ARE SHOWING BUYING INTEREST, WITH THE NASDAQ FUTURES LEADING THE WAY WITH A 1.4% INCREASE. IN EUROPE, THE DAX AND EURO STOXX 50 FUTURES ARE ALSO INDICATING A POSITIVE OPEN. ON THE DATA AGENDA FOR THE DAY, DOMESTICALLY, RETAIL SALES FIGURES FOR SEPTEMBER, THE TRADE SALES VOLUME INDEX, AND THE TOTAL TURNOVER INDEX WILL BE MONITORED. IN EUROPE, GERMANY`S FINAL OCTOBER CPI DATA WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED, WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS FOR A 0.2% MONTHLY DECREASE AND A 2.8% ANNUAL INCREASE. ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE`S SPEECH AND OPEC`S MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT ARE ALSO ON THE AGENDA. THERE ARE NO MAJOR DATA RELEASES IN THE U.S. TODAY, AND THE BOND MARKET IS CLOSED, BUT THE STOCK MARKETS WILL BE OPEN. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY POSITIVE MOMENTUM, FOLLOWED BY A VOLATILE INTRADAY COURSE.

HEADLINES:

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 2.1% MONTH-OVER-MONTH AND 2.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR IN SEPTEMBER. THE SLOWDOWN IN PRODUCTION, WHICH HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE APRIL, IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO A MODERATE RECOVERY AS INTEREST RATES ARE GRADUALLY CUT. ACCORDING TO INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX DATA, SEASONALLY- AND CALENDAR-ADJUSTED PRODUCTION ROSE 2.1% IN AUGUST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH. YEAR-OVER-YEAR PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 2.6%. WE CAN SAY THAT THE DATA PRINTED IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATIONS. FOLLOWING THE SHOCK IN APRIL, PRODUCTION DATA HAD SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE POSTPONEMENT OF THE INTEREST RATE CUT AND FINE-TUNING OF THE FUNDING MECHANISM LED TO A LAG OF APPROXIMATELY TWO QUARTERS IN ORDER AND PRODUCTION DATA. ALTHOUGH THE INTEREST RATE CUT, WHICH FOLLOWED ABOUT SIX MONTHS LATER, INDICATES THAT MONETARY TIGHTENING IS ONGOING, EXPECTATIONS REMAIN POSITIVE. THE PULLBACK IN OIL PRICES WAS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FUELING THIS POSITIVE SENTIMENT. OIL, WHICH HAD RISEN BACK TO THE USD115 LEVEL, RETREATED TO THE USD90 LEVEL. THESE PRICES ARE CLOSE TO THE ASSUMPTIONS IN THE CBRT’S INFLATION FORECASTS AND CREATE ROOM FOR AN INTEREST RATE CUT. WE EXPECT THE GAP IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR—WHICH HAS LONG UNDERPERFORMED THE SERVICES AND BANKING SECTORS—TO CLOSE BY 2027. INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES THAT ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO INTEREST RATE CUTS WILL SEE A NOTICEABLE RECOVERY. LOOKING AT THE DETAILS OF TODAY’S DATA, THE FIRST THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THE ULTRA-SHARP RISE IN HIGH-TECH PRODUCTION, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BOOSTED OVERALL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT. DEFENSE INDUSTRY PRODUCTION HAD SURGED IN SEPTEMBER, AND WE SEE THAT THIS DROVE A 26% INCREASE IN HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS. PRODUCTION MOMENTUM HAS BEEN CONSTRAINED NOT ONLY BY THE TIGHT DOMESTIC OUTLOOK BUT ALSO BY DYNAMICS IN GLOBAL DEMAND AND COSTS. WEAKNESS IN OUR MAIN EXPORT MARKET PERSISTS, AND COSTS HAVE REMAINED FIRM DESPITE DECLINING DEMAND. HOWEVER, EXPECTATIONS ARE GROWING THAT INTEREST RATE HIKES IN BOTH EUROPE AND THE U.S. MAY BE APPROACHED WITH CAUTION—OR EVEN SHELVED—DUE TO A MODERATION IN EXTERNAL SHOCKS. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE COMPOSITION OF GROWTH—RATHER THAN JUST THE SLOWDOWN ITSELF—REVEALS THE EXTENT TO WHICH MONETARY POLICY HAS AFFECTED PRODUCTION. THE SHIFT OF THE ECONOMY—DRIVEN BY THE SERVICES SECTOR—TOWARD A HEALTHY AND SUSTAINABLE PATH IS ALSO CRUCIAL FOR THE LABOR MARKET. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN PRODUCTION-ORIENTED SECTORS NOT ONLY CREATES VALUE ADDED BUT ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE DISINFLATION PROCESS. ON THE OTHER HAND, WHILE WAGE INCREASES IN THE SERVICES SECTOR CONTRIBUTE TO GROWTH, THEY ALSO HAVE A STRUCTURE THAT FUELS INFLATION, ALBEIT TO A LIMITED EXTENT. ANCHORING EXPECTATIONS IS CRUCIAL TO BREAKING THIS CYCLE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WHERE THE DYNAMICS DRIVING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE FUTURE STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY, VERBAL GUIDANCE FROM THE CBRT WILL BE A LIFELINE FOR THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR. IN THIS CONTEXT, WITH INFLATION AT 30%—A LEVEL WHERE PRICE RIGIDITY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT—WE BELIEVE POSITIVE DOMESTIC SHOCKS ARE NEEDED. THIS IS BECAUSE THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CLIMATE IS CHARACTERIZED BY A PERIOD IN WHICH NEGATIVE EXTERNAL SHOCKS ARE PUSHING INFLATION DYNAMICS UPWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE DECLINE IN NOMINAL INTEREST RATES, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN SECTOR-SPECIFIC LOANS WILL SUPPORT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BY REDUCING FINANCING COSTS. 2026 IS POISED TO BE A LOST YEAR FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY, BUT WE SEE THE CLOUDS CLEARING TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR. IF DOMESTIC POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND EXTERNAL GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS SUBSIDE, 2027 WILL BE A YEAR IN WHICH THE DEMAND DEFERRED FROM 2026 CREATES ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM FOR GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. IN THIS CONTEXT, AN ASSET MANAGEMENT STRATEGY THAT INCREASES THE WEIGHT OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN THE PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION FOR 2027 APPEARS REASONABLE.

COMPANY NEWS:

AKSA ENERGY (AKSEN.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT, UNDER AN ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL SIGNED WITH THE GABONESE ELECTRICITY AND WATER COMPANY (SEEG), THE CAPACITY OF THE POWER PLANT TO BE CONSTRUCTED IN LIBREVILLE WILL BE INCREASED FROM 100 MW TO 180 MW, WHILE THE AGREEMENT TERM WILL BE EXTENDED FROM 10 YEARS TO 15 YEARS. THE COMPANY ADDED THAT THE NATURAL GAS-FIRED POWER PLANTS WITH A TOTAL CAPACITY OF 145 MW ARE PLANNED TO BECOME OPERATIONAL BY THE END OF 2026, WHILE THE ADDITIONAL 80 MW CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO BE COMMISSIONED BY THE END OF 2028.

HALKBANK (HALKB.TI MP): THE BANK HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE TRANSFER OF ITS 99.99% STAKE IN HALK KATILIM BANKASI TO TVF KATILIM FINANS YATIRIMLARI WAS COMPLETED AS OF NOVEMBER 10, 2026, FOLLOWING APPROVAL FROM THE BRSA ON OCTOBER 22, 2026.

ERDEMIR (EREGL.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED AN UPDATED MINERAL RESOURCE ESTIMATE FOR THE ALACAHAN GOLD PROJECT IN SIVAS, OPERATED BY ITS SUBSIDIARY ERMADEN. ACCORDINGLY, TOTAL ESTIMATED GOLD RESOURCES HAVE REACHED 893K OZ, COMPRISING 785K OZ OF INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCES AND 108K OZ OF INFERRED MINERAL RESOURCES, REPRESENTING AN INCREASE OF APPROXIMATELY 111% COMPARED TO THE 424K OZ REPORTED IN NOVEMBER 2025. ALTHOUGH THESE RESOURCES HAVE NOT YET BEEN CLASSIFIED AS ECONOMICALLY MINEABLE RESERVES, WE VIEW THE INCREASE IN ESTIMATED RESOURCES AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN RESOURCE CONFIDENCE CLASSIFICATION AS POSITIVE FOR THE PROJECT.

PEGASUS (PGSUS.TI OP) HAS RELEASED ITS MONTHLY TRAFFIC FIGURES FOR OCTOBER 2026. THE CARRIER’S TOTAL PAX ROSE 4% YOY TO 4.21MN (OCTOBER 2025: 4.06MN) FOR THE MONTH. DOMESTIC PAX ROSE 14% YOY TO 1.55MN (OCTOBER 2025: 1.36MN). INTERNATIONAL PAX DECLINED 1% YOY TO 2.66MN FOR THE MONTH (OCTOBER 2025: 2.70MN). THE TOTAL LOAD FACTOR WAS DOWN 0.5 PP YOY TO 88.2% (OCTOBER 2025: 88.7%). THE DOMESTIC LOAD FACTOR ROSE 2.2 PP YOY TO 93.4% (OCTOBER 2025: 91.2%), WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL LOAD FACTOR DECLINED 2.1 PP YOY TO 85.4% (OCTOBER 2025: 87.5%). THUS, THE COMPANY`S INT’L PAX IN OCTOBER 2026 REACHED APPROXIMATELY 63.2% (OCTOBER 2025: 66.5%) OF THE TOTAL PASSENGER NUMBER. TOTAL ASK ROSE 2% YOY TO 7.6BN IN OCTOBER 2026 (NEUTRAL).

PETKIM (PETKM.TI MP) HAS REPORTED THAT DURING THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 2–6, 2026, THE ETHYLENE–NAPHTHA SPREAD CONTRACTED BY 9.6% WOW TO USD 165/TON FROM USD 182/TON IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK, AS ETHYLENE PRICES DECLINED BY 13.2%, DESPITE A SHARPER 13.9% DECLINE IN NAPHTHA PRICES. THE PETKIM SPREAD INCREASED SHARPLY BY 30.7% WOW TO USD 429/TON FROM USD 328/TON. DESPITE THE CONTRACTION IN THE ETHYLENE–NAPHTHA SPREAD, WE VIEW THE SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN THE PETKIM SPREAD AS POSITIVE FOR PETKIM.

SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

***
YASAL UYARI

BURADA YER ALAN YATIRIM BILGI, YORUM VE TAVSIYELER YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI KAPSAMINDA DEGILDIR.YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI HIZMETI ARACI KURUMLAR, PORTFOY YONETIM SIRKETLERI, MEVDUAT KABUL ETMEYEN BANKALAR ILE MUSTERI ARASINDA IMZALANACAK YATIRIM DANISMANLIGI SOZLESMESI CERCEVESINDE SUNULMAKTADIR.BURADA YER ALAN YORUM VE TAVSIYELER, YORUM VE TAVSIYEDE BULUNANLARIN KISISEL GORUSLERINE DAYANMAKTADIR.BU GORUSLER MALI DURUMUNUZ ILE RISK VE GETIRI TERCIHLERINIZE UYGUN OLMAYABILIR.BU NEDENLE, SADECE BURADA YER ALAN BILGILERE DAYANILARAK YATIRIM KARARI VERILMESI BEKLENTILERINIZE UYGUN SONUCLAR DOGURMAYABILIR.