MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH - THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED WEDNESDAY ON A SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TREND, FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 13,032.51 AND 13,269.49 THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND CLOSED AT 13,200.38, UP 0.19%. ON THE SECTORAL SIDE, THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX FELL BY 0.60%, AND THE BANKING INDEX BY 0.62%. THE WEAKEST PERFORMANCE OF THE DAY WAS GIVEN BY THE MINING INDEX, WHICH LOST 2.97%. THE POSITIVE POST-EARNINGS PERFORMANCE OF BIMAS SHARES PLAYED A DECISIVE ROLE IN THE BENCHMARK INDEX RISE. THE VIOP APRIL FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX FELL BY 0.25% IN THE EVENING SESSION. GLOBALLY, WEDNESDAY SAW WEAK RISK APPETITE IN EQUITY MARKETS. IN THE U.S., THE DOW JONES INDEX FELL 0.61% AND THE S&P 500 INDEX DROPPED 0.08%, WHILE THE NASDAQ INDEX SAW A LIMITED RISE OF 0.08%. IN EUROPE, THE GERMAN DAX INDEX CLOSED DOWN 1.37%, WHILE THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX FELL 0.70%. PRESIDENT TRUMP STATED THAT MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR OBJECTIVES WERE ACHIEVED AND WOULD BE COMPLETED SOON. IRANIAN OFFICIALS WARNED THAT TENSIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ COULD PUSH OIL PRICES UP TO USD200 PER BARREL, WHILE RISING SUPPLY CONCERNS CAUSED BRENT CRUDE PRICES TO APPROACH THE USD100 LEVEL AGAIN. ASIAN STOCK MARKETS ARE SHOWING A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK AT THE START OF THE NEW DAY. THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN FUTURES INDICES ARE ALSO TRADING NEGATIVELY. DOMESTICALLY, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE INTEREST RATE DECISION FROM THE CBRT`S MPC MEETING AND THE JANUARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS. MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE CBRT WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO INTEREST RATES. WE ALSO EXPECT NO CHANGE IN INTEREST RATES. MEANWHILE, MARKET EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ARE AROUND USD5.4 BILLION. WE EXPECT A CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT OF USD5.7 BILLION. GLOBALLY, THE U.S. TRADE BALANCE, WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS, AND A SPEECH BY FOMC MEMBER BOWMAN FROM THE FED ARE KEY EVENTS. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START THURSDAY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY WITH INTRADAY VOLATILITY TO FOLLOW. SUPPORT: 13,000 - 12,900 RESISTANCE: 13,300 - 13,400.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE YESTERDAY, WEAKENING 0.12% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 44.0905. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.27% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE NEGATIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND YIELD FLUCTUATED WITHIN A RANGE OF 31.53%-31.82%, CLOSING THE DAY AT 31.78%, UP 31 BPS FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSE.
HEADLINES:
TODAY`S MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA INCLUDES THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE (CBRT) INTEREST RATE DECISION AND THE PUBLICATION OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS FOR JANUARY. MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE CBRT WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO INTEREST RATES. AT SEKER INVEST, WE ALSO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGES TO INTEREST RATES. THE DECISION TEXT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY REFERENCES TO THE VOLATILITY IN COMMODITY PRICES AND INFLATIONARY PRESSURES CAUSED BY RECENT GEOPOLITICAL RISKS. FURTHERMORE, THE SUSPENSION OF REPO AUCTIONS, WHICH CREATED A LIQUIDITY GAP OF APPROXIMATELY TRY 900 BILLION IN THE MARKET, AND THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TO EXCESS LIQUIDITY THROUGH FOREIGN EXCHANGE SALES OF APPROXIMATELY USD 25 BILLION WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION OF MONETARY POLICY. MEANWHILE, MARKET EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT STAND AT USD 5.4 BILLION. AT SEKER INVEST, WE EXPECT A CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT OF USD 5.7 BILLION. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS WILL BE ANOTHER IMPORTANT MACROECONOMIC VARIABLE TO MONITOR IN TERMS OF MONETARY POLICY TIGHTENING. OUR DETAILED ANALYSIS WILL BE PUBLISHED LATER TODAY.
COMPANY NEWS:
HALKBANK (HALKB.TI MP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE DEFERRED PROSECUTION AGREEMENT SIGNED BETWEEN THE BANK AND THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE, U.S. ATTORNEY`S OFFICE FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK, AIMED AT RESOLVING THE CRIMINAL CASE FILED AGAINST THE BANK IN THE UNITED STATES THROUGH A SETTLEMENT, HAS BEEN REVIEWED BY THE U.S. DISTRICT COURT FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK, AND HAS ENTERED INTO FORCE.



SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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