MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH - FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED THURSDAY ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TREND, FOLLOWED A BULLISH TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE CBRT`S MPC MEETING, WHICH WAS THE FOCUS OF DOMESTIC MARKETS, NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO INTEREST RATES, IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS. THE COMMITTEE KEPT THE ONE-WEEK REPO AUCTION INTEREST RATE AT 37.0%, WHILE MAINTAINING THE OVERNIGHT LENDING AND BORROWING RATES AT 40.0% AND 35.5%, RESPECTIVELY. FOLLOWING THE CBRT`S INTEREST RATE DECISION, THE BIST-100 INDEX, STRENGTHENED BY BUYING ACTIVITY, TESTED ABOVE 13,400.00. HOWEVER, PROFIT-TAKING LATER IN THE DAY CAUSED IT TO GIVE BACK A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS GAINS, CLOSED THE DAY AT 13,268.12, UP 0.65%. THE BANKING INDEX LOST 2.01% DUE TO SELLING PRESSURE, WHILE THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX ROSE 1.75%, REMAINING ON THE POSITIVE SIDE. ACCORDING TO DATA RELEASED YESTERDAY, THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE SHOWED A DEFICIT OF USD 6.8 BILLION IN JANUARY, WHILE THE ANNUALIZED CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT REACHED USD 32.9 BILLION. THE CBRT`S NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES DECREASED BY USD 12.997 BILLION TO USD 78.780 BILLION AS OF MARCH 6, 2026, COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. DURING THE SAME WEEK, THE STOCK OF SHARES HELD BY NON-RESIDENTS DECREASED BY A NET USD 755.6 MILLION, WHILE THE STOCK OF GOVERNMENT BONDS DECREASED BY USD 1.7255 BILLION. GLOBALLY, YESTERDAY`S HARSH STATEMENTS FROM TRUMP AND KHAMENEI LED TO CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN OIL PRICES, WHILE RISK APPETITE IN EQUITY MARKETS WAS WEAK. IN THE U.S., THE DOW JONES INDEX FELL BY 1.56%, THE S&P 500 INDEX BY 1.52%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX BY 1.78%. IN EUROPE, LOSSES WERE MORE LIMITED, WITH THE GERMAN DAX INDEX CLOSED DOWN 0.21% AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX DOWN 0.69%. THE APRIL FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX FELL BY 0.19% IN THE EVENING SESSION. THE OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY NEGATIVE ACROSS ASIAN STOCK MARKETS AS THE NEW DAY BEGINS. IN FUTURES MARKETS, THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN FUTURES INDICES ARE SHOWING LIMITED POSITIVE PRICING. DOMESTICALLY, THE MACROECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH INCLUDES THE MARKET PARTICIPANT SURVEY AND HOUSING SALES DATA. GLOBALLY, THE U.S. GDP DATA STANDS OUT. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START FRIDAY WITH A LIMITED NEGATIVE TREND, FOLLOWED BY VOLATILE MOVEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUPPORT: 13,100 - 13,000 RESISTANCE: 13,300 - 13,400
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE YESTERDAY, WEAKENING 0.05% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 44.1147. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.04% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE NEGATIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND WAS TRADED WITHIN A RANGE OF 32.22%-32.39%, ENDING THE DAY AT A HIGH OF 32.39%, 61 BPS ABOVE ITS PREVIOUS CLOSING.
HEADLINES:
*** THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE KEEPS ITS POLICY RATE STEADY AT 37%, IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. WHILE EMPHASIZING GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND THE DETERIORATION IN RISK APPETITE, IT IS CLEARLY STATED THAT THE MONETARY POLICY STANCE WOULD TIGHTEN IN THE EVENT OF A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT DETERIORATION IN THE INFLATION OUTLOOK: THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE (CBRT) MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE (MPC) HAS KEPT THE POLICY RATE UNCHANGED AT 37 PER CENT AT THIS MONTH`S MEETING, IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS. OUR EXPECTATIONS WERE ALSO FOR NO CHANGE IN INTEREST RATES. THE DETAILS OF THE DECISION REVEAL A CAUTIOUS STANCE AND A HAWKISH TONE OF TIGHTENING WHEN NECESSARY. THE TEXT BRIEFLY SUMMARIZES RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. THE DETERIORATION IN GLOBAL RISK APPETITE IS AFFECTING TURKEY AND OTHER EMERGING ECONOMIES, PARTICULARLY THROUGH CREDIT RISK PREMIUMS AND CAPITAL OUTFLOWS. IN ADDITION, GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING ENERGY PRICES, ESPECIALLY OIL, FUELING INFLATION CONCERNS. OUR BASELINE SCENARIO PRIOR TO RECENT DEVELOPMENTS WAS FOR A 50-100 BASIS POINT CUT IN MARCH. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT SITUATION, CHARACTERIZED BY UNCERTAINTY AND SIGNIFICANT RISKS, SUGGESTS AN INTEREST RATE HIKE RATHER THAN A CUT. TO BRIEFLY SUMMARIZE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, THE SPILLOVER OF THE US-IRAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT TO REGIONAL COUNTRIES HAS LED TO OIL PRICES TEMPORARILY REACHING USD120 PER BARREL. AS A RESULT, CBRT SUSPENDED ITS REPO AUCTIONS AND BEGAN PROVIDING ACTUAL FUNDING THROUGH ITS LENDING RATE. THIS CAN BE DESCRIBED AS A HIDDEN INTEREST RATE HIKE. AS THE EXCESS LIQUIDITY IN THE MARKET DISRUPTED THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM, THE CBRT INITIATED NEGOTIATED FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS. THIS BOTH CURBED EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND ABSORBED EXCESS LIQUIDITY IN THE MARKET. WHILE THE STEPS TAKEN FOR LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT SUPPORTED MONETARY POLICY, FISCAL POLICY ALSO MADE A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO INFLATION RISKS. AS EMPHASIZED IN TODAY`S DECISION TEXT, THE TRANSITION TO THE ESCALATOR CLAUSE HAS LIMITED THE IMPACT OF VOLATILITY IN ENERGY MARKETS ON FINAL CONSUMER PRICES WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF COORDINATION BETWEEN MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY. ALTHOUGH THE EFFECTS OF GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ON THE INFLATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE COST CHANNEL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REMAIN UNCLEAR, THEY ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. THE PROLONGATION OF THE WAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE COST PRESSURES BOTH IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN AND IN ENERGY PRICES. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SCENARIOS ARE BASED ON THE WAR ENDING SOON, UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS RISK APPETITE. THE MOST HAWKISH STATEMENT WE SEE IN THE DECISION TEXT CONCERNS THE MONETARY POLICY STANCE IN THE EVENT OF A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT DETERIORATION IN THE INFLATION OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH THIS RHETORIC WAS EXPRESSED IN PREVIOUS MEETINGS, IT WAS REMOVED FROM THE DECISION TEXT. FOR THE CONDITIONS OF BEING BOTH SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT TO BE MET SIMULTANEOUSLY, THERE MUST BE A DETERIORATION IN THE MAIN INFLATION TREND THAT IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE INTERMEDIATE TARGETS, AND THIS MUST NOT BE TEMPORARY (1-2 MONTHS). IT HAS BEEN CLEARLY STATED THAT MONETARY POLICY WILL BE TIGHTENED FURTHER IF THIS OCCURS. WE BELIEVE THIS EMPHASIS IS IMPORTANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. IF ENERGY PRICES OR SUPPLY CHAIN-RELATED COST PRESSURES BECOME PERMANENT, RISK APPETITE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, AS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES WILL ARISE NOT ONLY DOMESTICALLY BUT ALSO GLOBALLY. IN THIS CASE, WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE OUR BASELINE SCENARIOS FOR BOTH DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. THE SUPPORT PROVIDED BY FISCAL POLICY WILL INCREASE PRESSURE ON THE BUDGET FOR A WHILE. INFLATIONARY PRESSURES ARISING FROM THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ALSO POSE A RISK TO THE INTERMEDIATE TARGETS. IN THIS CONTEXT, WE ARE IN A PRECARIOUS SITUATION.
*** THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE RECORDED A DEFICIT OF USD 6.8 BILLION IN JANUARY, WHILE THE ANNUALIZED CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT STOOD AT USD 32.9 BILLION. THE RECOVERY IN RESERVES CONTINUED, DRIVEN BY GOLD PRICES, WHILE PORTFOLIO INFLOWS ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY: ACCORDING TO BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS, THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FOR JANUARY RECORDED A DEFICIT OF 6,807 MILLION US DOLLARS. AS A RESULT, THE TWELVE-MONTH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT STOOD AT 32,880 MILLION US DOLLARS. OUR CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT FORECAST OF 5.7 BILLION US DOLLARS WAS ABOVE MARKET EXPECTATIONS (5.4 BILLION US DOLLAR DEFICIT). THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, WHICH EXCEEDED OUR EXPECTATIONS, POINTS TO BUOYANT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SUB-ITEMS TRIGGERING THE UPTREND IN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS. THE FOREIGN TRADE DEFICIT REMAINED BUOYANT AT USD6.9 BILLION. WE ARE CLEARLY FEELING THE IMPACT OF THE WINTER SEASON ON INFLOWS IN THE SERVICES BALANCE. IN JANUARY, INFLOWS FROM THE SERVICES BALANCE REMAINED AT USD2.6 BILLION. WE HAD EXPECTED A MORE SUBDUED ATMOSPHERE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, WITH MORE LIMITED INFLOWS FROM THE SERVICES BALANCE AND STRONGER PRESSURES ON THE TRADE DEFICIT. HOWEVER, RECENT GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND VOLATILITY IN COMMODITY PRICES POINT TO AN ATMOSPHERE THAT IS EVEN MORE NEGATIVE THAN OUR BASELINE SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERITY OF THE SHOCK MAY BE MITIGATED BY COORDINATED MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES, ITS LONG-TERM IMPACT WILL BE NEGATIVE IF TENSIONS PERSIST. GLOBAL MARKET UNCERTAINTY AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS MAY INCREASE THE SEVERITY OF FUTURE PRESSURES ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT AND INFLATION. LOOKING AT THE DETAILS OF THE ACTUAL CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, THE TRADE DEFICIT DEFINED BY THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS WAS USD6,967 MILLION, AND INFLOWS FROM THE SERVICES BALANCE AMOUNTED TO USD2,639 MILLION. THE TWELVE-MONTH CUMULATIVE TRADE DEFICIT DEFINED BY THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS WAS USD71.2 BILLION, WHILE INFLOWS FROM THE SERVICES BALANCE AMOUNTED TO USD63.1 BILLION. THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE EXCLUDING GOLD AND ENERGY RECORDED A DEFICIT OF USD1,228 MILLION THIS MONTH. THE DETERIORATION IN THE CORE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE IN RECENT MONTHS IS STRIKING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT MAY DETERIORATE BEYOND EXPECTATIONS.
SECTOR NEWS:
THE EURO EXCHANGE RATE USED TO DETERMINE DRUG PRICES HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE `PRESIDENTIAL DECREE ON THE PRICING OF HUMAN MEDICINAL PRODUCTS` PUBLISHED IN THE OFFICIAL GAZETTE. ACCORDING TO THE DECISION, THE REFERENCE EURO EXCHANGE RATE USED IN THE CALCULATION OF DRUG PRICES HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM TRY 25.33 TO TRY 26.87. IT WAS STATED THAT THE NEW RATE SET BY THE REGULATION WILL REMAIN VALID UNTIL APRIL 1.WHILE THIS INCREASE IN THE REFERENCE EXCHANGE RATE INDICATES A RISE OF APPROXIMATELY 6%, THE REGULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SIMILAR INCREASE IN DRUG PRICES (POSITIVE).
COMPANY NEWS:
KOC HOLDING (KCHOL.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT A SHARE PURCHASE AGREEMENT HAS BEEN EXECUTED FOR THE SALE TO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S. OF ALL SHARES REPRESENTING THE CAPITAL OF KOC FINANSMAN A.S., WHEREIN THE COMPANY HOLDS 50%, ARCELIK A.S. HOLDS 47%, AND OTHER KOC GROUP COMPANIES HOLD 3% OF THE SHARE CAPITAL. PURSUANT TO THE SHARE PURCHASE AGREEMENT, ALL SHARES REPRESENTING THE CAPITAL OF KOC FINANSMAN A.S. WILL BE SOLD TO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S. FOR A TOTAL CONSIDERATION OF USD 137,000,000, DETERMINED BASED ON THE COMPANY VALUE ASSESSED IN THE VALUATION REPORT. THE AMOUNT CORRESPONDING TO THE SHARES OWNED BY THE COMPANY AMOUNTS TO USD 68,500,000 SUBJECT TO THE CLOSING ADJUSTMENTS. (RELATED COMPANIES: ARCELIK (ARCLK.TI OP), FORD OTOSAN (FROTO.TI OP)).



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