MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED THURSDAY ON A POSITIVE TREND AT 11,675.26, ROSE TO 11,898.31 DURING THE SESSION, AND CLOSED THE DAY AT 11,811.19, UP 1.24%. THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX GAINED 1.96%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX DIVERGED NEGATIVELY, DOWN 0.70%. THE STRONGEST PERFORMANCE WAS GIVEN BY THE METAL GOODS AND MACHINERY INDEX, UP 4.37%, WHILE THE DAY`S BIGGEST LOSER WAS THE MINING INDEX, DOWN 2.36%. THE VIOP DECEMBER FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE BIST-30 INDEX COMPLETED THURSDAY`S EVENING SESSION DOWN 0.29% COMPARED TO THE EARLY SESSION CLOSING. THE CBRT, IN ITS FINAL INFLATION REPORT OF THE YEAR, RAISED ITS END-OF-2026 INFLATION FORECAST FROM 28% TO 29.5%. THE CBRT REVISED ITS INTERIM INFLATION TARGETS UPWARDS, FROM 15% TO 21% FOR 2027, AND FROM 9% TO 13.5% FOR 2028. MEANWHILE, AVERAGE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ROSE FROM USD87.8 TO USD97.2 FOR 2026, AND FROM USD76.4 TO USD86.7 FOR 2027. THE CBRT`S GROSS RESERVES INCREASED BY USD3 BILLION TO USD161.1 BILLION IN THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 6, FOLLOWING A THREE-WEEK DECLINE, WHILE NET RESERVES EXCLUDING SWAPS INCREASED BY USD3.1 BILLION FROM USD24.3 BILLION TO USD27.4 BILLION. IN THE SAME WEEK, FOREIGN RESIDENTS MADE NET PURCHASES OF USD367 MILLION IN EQUITIES AND USD37 MILLION IN GOVERNMENT BONDS, ACCORDING TO DATA ADJUSTED FOR PRICE AND FX RATE EFFECTS. GLOBALLY, WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS IN THE U.S. ROSE TO 200,000, COMPARED TO A MARKET EXPECTATION OF 195,000. IN OCTOBER, EXISTING HOME SALES FELL TO 3.75 MILLION, BELOW THE ANNUALIZED EXPECTATION OF 3.89 MILLION UNITS. FOLLOWING THE RESIGNATION OF NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG, U.S. STOCK MARKETS SAW SELLING PRESSURE, WITH THE DOW JONES INDEX FALLING 0.36%, THE S&P 500 INDEX DOWN 0.35%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX DOWN 0.39%. EUROPEAN MARKETS SHOWED A POSITIVE TREND, WITH THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX GAINING 0.13%, THE GERMAN DAX INDEX 0.41%, THE FRENCH CAC 40 INDEX 0.34%, AND THE UK FTSE 100 INDEX 0.25%. SPOT BRENT CRUDE OIL, WHICH CLOSED AT USD94.79 PER BARREL YESTERDAY AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP STATED THAT THEY DID NOT NEED A DEAL WITH IRAN, IS TRADING DOWN 0.77% THIS MORNING AT USD94.06. IN ASIA, THE OUTLOOK IS MIXED THE NIKKEI 225 INDEX IS UP APPROXIMATELY 0.6%, WHILE THE KOSPI INDEX IS DOWN 1.2%, THE SHANGHAI INDEX 0.5%, AND THE HANG SENG INDEX AROUND 1.4%. IN FUTURES MARKETS, THE DOW JONES AND S&P 500 FUTURES IN THE US ARE TRADING SLIGHTLY LOWER, WHILE THE NASDAQ 100 FUTURES ARE SHOWING SLIGHT SELLING PRESSURE. IN EUROPE, DAX AND EURO STOXX 50 FUTURES ARE POINTING TO A DECLINE OF APPROXIMATELY 0.4%. ON THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA TODAY, THE CBRT`S NOVEMBER MARKET PARTICIPANTS SURVEY AND SEPTEMBER BALANCE OF PAYMENTS NUMBERS STAND OUT DOMESTICALLY. MARKET EXPECTATIONS ESTIMATE THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS AT AROUND USD 2.3 BILLION. WE EXPECT A CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS OF USD 2.6 BILLION. ABROAD, WE WILL BE WATCHING EUROZONE THIRD-QUARTER GROWTH AND THE SEPTEMBER TRADE BALANCE, AND IN THE U.S., OCTOBER PRODUCER INFLATION AND SPEECHES BY FED OFFICIALS BOWMAN AND DALY. THE EUROZONE ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO REVEAL GROWTH OF 0.4% QOQ AND 1.3% YOY IN 3Q. MARKET EXPECTATIONS FOR U.S. PPI ARE FOR A MONTHLY INCREASE OF 0.4% AND AN ANNUAL INCREASE OF 6.6%. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START FRIDAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE MOMENTUM, FOLLOWED BY A VOLATILE INTRADAY COURSE


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