MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH - MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TREND, THEN HIT A NEW RECORD HIGH IN TRY TERMS, REACHING 14,320.87 POINTS AMID SUBSEQUENT BUYING ACTIVITY. AFTER FALLING FROM ABOVE 14,300 ON PROFIT-TAKING, THE INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT 14,180.69. IN SECTORAL INDICES, THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX SAW A LIMITED DECLINE OF 0.02%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX, FOLLOWING THURSDAY`S STRONG 6.96% RISE, RECORDED A 1.50% DECREASE, SHOWING A NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE. THE TRANSPORTATION INDEX WAS THE MOST POSITIVE PERFORMER WITH A 2.57% GAIN, WHILE THE METAL MAIN INDEX WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE WITH ITS 1.79% DECREASE. ACCORDING TO THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DATA PUBLISHED BY THE CBRT ON FRIDAY, THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FOR DECEMBER SHOWED A DEFICIT OF USD 7,253MN. AS A RESULT, THE TWELVE-MONTH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT REACHED USD 25.207MN (FROM USD 22.670MN PREVIOUSLY). THE VIOP FEBRUARY FUTURES INDEX CONTRACT RECORDED A 0.08% GAIN DURING FRIDAY`S QUIET EVENING SESSION. ON A WEEKLY BASIS, THE BIST 100 INDEX ROSE 4.87%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX INCREASED BY 7.66% AND THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX BY 5.24%. THE MINING INDEX WAS THE MOST POSITIVE PERFORMER WITH A GAIN OF 11.55%, WHILE THE HOLDING AND INVESTMENT INDEX WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE WITH A LOSS OF 1.04%. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT, DATA RELEASED IN THE U.S. ON FRIDAY SHOWED A CPI RISE OF 2.4% YOY, BELOW EXPECTATIONS (EXPECTED: +2.5%, PREVIOUS: +2.7%). U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT SAID HE EXPECTS INFLATION TO RETURN TO NEAR THE FED`S 2% TARGET BY MID-YEAR. CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT AUSTAN GOOLSBEE SAID THAT IF INFLATION PROGRESSES TOWARD THE 2% TARGET, THE FED COULD FURTHER CUT INTEREST RATES. FOLLOWING BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED DATA, EXPECTATIONS OF A JUNE RATE CUT BY THE FED STRENGTHENED, WITH THE DOW JONES INDEX RISING 0.10%, THE S&P 500 INDEX UP 0.05%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX DOWN 0.22%. EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS GAVE A MIXED PERFORMANCE, WITH THE GERMAN DAX INDEX RISING 0.25%. ASIAN MARKETS ARE GIVING A MIXED PERFORMANCE THIS MORNING. THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN FUTURES ARE SHOWING LIMITED POSITIVE GAINS. ON MONDAY, THE MACROECONOMIC DATA TO BE FOLLOWED DOMESTICALLY IS THE JANUARY BUDGET BALANCE DATA. GLOBALLY, WITH MARKETS CLOSED IN THE U.S. AND CHINA, THE EUROZONE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA STANDS OUT. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START THE WEEK WITH LIMITED POSITIVE GAINS, AND THEN SEEK TO MAINTAIN ITS UPTREND IF PROFIT-TAKING IS ABSORBED. SUPPORT: 14,000 - 13,900 RESISTANCE: 14,300 - 14,400.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE ON FRIDAY, WEAKENING 0.22% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 43.7391. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.09% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY FLAT. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND WAS TRADED WITHIN A TIGHT RANGE OF 29.74%-29.83%, ENDING THE DAY AT A HIGH OF 29.83%, 7 BPS BELOW ITS PREVIOUS CLOSING.
HEADLINES:
*** ON THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA TODAY, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET STATISTICS FOR JANUARY WILL BE PUBLISHED DOMESTICALLY. WITH THE MATURITY OF THE CPI-INDEXED BOND ISSUED IN 2016, THERE WILL BE A PERIODIC JUMP IN INTEREST PAYMENTS. WE EXPECT THE COORDINATION IN FISCAL POLICY TO CONTINUE. OUR DETAILED ANALYSIS WILL BE PUBLISHED DURING THE DAY.
*** THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE RECORDS A DEFICIT OF USD 7.25 BILLION IN DECEMBER, WHILE THE TOTAL CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT FOR 2025 STOOD AT USD 25.2 BILLION. IN 2025, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS RECORD AN OUTFLOW OF USD 1.7 BILLION, WHILE DIRECT INVESTMENTS POST AN INFLOW OF USD 3.3 BILLION, AND RESERVES RECORD A DECLINE OF USD 22 BILLION: ACCORDING TO BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS, THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FOR DECEMBER RECORDED A DEFICIT OF USD 7,253 MILLION. AS A RESULT, THE TWELVE-MONTH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT STOOD AT USD 25,207 MILLION (PREVIOUS: USD 22,670 MILLION). OUR CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT FORECAST WAS USD 5.9 BILLION, EXCEEDING MARKET EXPECTATIONS (USD 5.5 BILLION DEFICIT). THERE WAS A MARKED INCREASE IN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT SPECIFICALLY IN DECEMBER. TWO REASONS STAND OUT AS TRIGGERS FOR THE SEASONAL INCREASE IN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT. THE FOREIGN TRADE DEFICIT STOOD AT USD 7.4 BILLION DESPITE THE TIGHT MONETARY STANCE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE APRIL (APRIL: USD 9.9 BILLION). ON THE OTHER HAND, INFLOWS IN THE SERVICES BALANCE DECLINED TO USD 2.65 BILLION DUE TO THE WINTER SEASON EFFECT. THIS MARKS THE LOWEST LEVEL WITHIN THE YEAR, EXCLUDING FEBRUARY 2025. WE EXPECTED INFLOWS IN THE SERVICES BALANCE TO CONTINUE THEIR WEAK TREND DUE TO THE REAL APPRECIATION EFFECT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE TIGHT MONETARY STANCE, DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR IMPORTED GOODS CONTINUES TO GROW AT AN INCREASING PACE. THIS DEVELOPMENT, WHICH SUPPORTS GROWTH, BOTH SLOWS DOWN THE DISINFLATION PROCESS AND INCREASES THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REMAINS BUOYANT, SUPPORTING IMPORT DEMAND. WE CLOSED THE YEAR IN LINE WITH OUR 2025 YEAR-END FORECAST OF A CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT OF USD 25 BILLION. WE EXPECT THE PRESSURE ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT 2026, ALBEIT AT A REDUCED PACE. WHILE DOMESTIC DEMAND REMAINS BUOYANT, THE RECOVERY IN EXTERNAL DEMAND, WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE POSITIVELY TO THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, IS PROCEEDING AT A SLOWER PACE. GLOBAL MARKET UNCERTAINTY AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ARE PUTTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON REAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DETAILS, THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS-DEFINED TRADE DEFICIT AMOUNTED TO USD 7,439 MILLION, WHILE INFLOWS FROM THE SERVICES BALANCE AMOUNTED TO USD 2,651 MILLION. THE TWELVE-MONTH CUMULATIVE TRADE DEFICIT DEFINED BY THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS WAS USD 69.7 BILLION, WHILE INFLOWS FROM THE SERVICES BALANCE AMOUNTED TO USD 63.5 BILLION. THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE EXCLUDING GOLD AND ENERGY RECORDED A DEFICIT OF USD 691 MILLION THIS MONTH. THE 12-MONTH CUMULATIVE FIGURE FOR THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS EXCLUDING GOLD AND ENERGY STANDS AT USD 42 BILLION. THE CURRENT SURPLUS IN THE CORE BALANCE CONTINUES.
COMPANY NEWS:
AKBANK (AKBNK.TI OP) HAS SOLD A PORTION OF ITS NON-PERFORMING LOAN (NPL) PORTFOLIO WITH A GROSS VALUE OF TRY 1,220 MILLION FOR A TOTAL CONSIDERATION OF TRY 242 MILLION TO BIRIKIM VARLIK YONETIMI A.S., GELECEK VARLIK YONETIMI A.S., ISTANBUL VARLIK YONETIMI A.S., AND ORTAK VARLIK YONETIM A.S..
PEGASUS (PGSUS.TI OP) HAS RELEASED ITS MONTHLY TRAFFIC FIGURES FOR JANUARY 2026. THE CARRIER`S TOTAL PAX ROSE 11% YOY TO 3.55MN (JANUARY 2025: 3.19MN) FOR THE MONTH. DOMESTIC PAX ROSE 10% YOY TO 1.33MN (JANUARY 2025: 1.21MN). INTERNATIONAL PAX IMPROVED 12% YOY TO 2.22MN FOR THE MONTH (JANUARY 2025: 1.98MN). THE TOTAL LOAD FACTOR WAS UP 1.8 PP YOY TO 87.1% (JANUARY 2025: 85.3%). THE DOMESTIC LOAD FACTOR ROSE 2.3 PP YOY TO 92.3% (JANUARY 2025: 90.0%), WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL LOAD FACTOR ALSO ROSE 1.6 PP YOY TO 84.2% (JANUARY 2025: 82.6%). THUS, THE COMPANY`S INT`L PAX IN JANUARY 2026 REACHED APPROXIMATELY 84.2% (JANUARY 2025: 82.6%) OF THE TOTAL PASSENGER NUMBER. TOTAL ASK ROSE 11% YOY TO 6.4BN IN JANUARY 2026. THE CONTINUED STRENGTH OF THE PAX GROWTH TREND IN INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS, THE GROWTH IN DOMESTIC PAX INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF PEGASUS` POSITIVE OPERATIONAL TREND. WE BELIEVE THAT THE ANNOUNCED TRAFFIC RESULTS MAY HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE SHORT-TERM PERFORMANCE OF THE COMPANY`S SHARES (POSITIVE).
SISECAM (SISE.TI OP) IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS 4Q25 FINANCIAL RESULTS TODAY AFTER THE CLOSE OF TURKISH MARKETS. WE FORECAST THAT THE COMPANY WILL REPORT NET SALES OF TRY 53,879 MILLION IN 4Q25 (MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION: TRY 53,226 MILLION). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, WHILE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION STANDS AT TRY 4,564 MILLION, OUR ESTIMATE IS LOWER AT TRY 2,894 MILLION. OVERALL, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO POST A NET PROFIT OF TRY 1,597 MILLION IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THE YEAR (MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION: TRY 1,597 MILLION).



SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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