MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)
MARKET WATCH - TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED MONDAY POSITIVELY, THEREAFTER FOLLOWING A VOLATILE POSITIVE TREND. REACHING A NEW RECORD HIGH IN TRY TERMS AT 14,433.15, THE INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT 14,339.30, UP 1.12%. IN SECTORAL INDICES, THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX ROSE BY 1.06%, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX`S INCREASE WAS LIMITED TO 0.28%. THE FINANCIAL LEASING AND FACTORING INDEX WAS THE MOST POSITIVE PERFORMER WITH A 4.20% GAIN, WHILE THE TECHNOLOGY INDEX WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE WITH ITS 1.04% LOSS. ACCORDING TO DATA RELEASED YESTERDAY BY THE MINISTRY OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXPENDITURES IN JANUARY AMOUNTED TO TRY 1 TRILLION 635.8 BILLION, WHILE BUDGET REVENUES REACHED TRY 1 TRILLION 421.2 BILLION. DURING THE SAME PERIOD, NON-INTEREST BUDGET EXPENDITURES AMOUNTED TO TRY 1 TRILLION 179.4 BILLION, AND THE NON-INTEREST SURPLUS WAS TRY 241.9 BILLION. WITH THESE FIGURES, THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE SHOWED A DEFICIT OF TRY 214.5 BILLION IN JANUARY. THE VIOP FEBRUARY FUTURES CONTRACT RECORDED A LIMITED DECREASE OF 0.13% IN THE QUIET EVENING SESSION. ON THE GLOBAL FRONT, IT WAS A QUIET DAY WITH LOW TRADING VOLUME IN EQUITY MARKETS WITH THE ABSENCE OF MARKETS IN THE U.S., CHINA, AND SOUTH KOREA DUE TO PUBLIC HOLIDAYS. EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS GAVE A MIXED PERFORMANCE, WITH THE GERMAN DAX INDEX CLOSING DOWN 0.46% AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX DOWN 0.11%. AS THE NEW DAY BEGINS, MARKETS ARE FOCUSED ON THE OUTCOMES OF THE SECOND ROUND OF THE U.S.-IRAN TALKS TAKING PLACE IN GENEVA, SWITZERLAND, AND THE THIRD ROUND OF TRILATERAL TALKS BETWEEN RUSSIA, THE U.S., AND UKRAINE. THIS MORNING, THE JAPANESE NIKKEI 225 INDEX IS TRADING NEGATIVELY IN ASIA. MARKETS IN CHINA AND SOUTH KOREA REMAIN CLOSED TODAY FOR A PUBLIC HOLIDAY. THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN FUTURES ARE ALSO TRADING NEGATIVELY. IN TERMS OF MACROECONOMIC RELEASES, THE JANUARY HOUSING PRICE INDEX DATA STANDS OUT DOMESTICALLY. GLOBALLY, WE WILL BE FOLLOWING GERMANY`S CPI, THE UK`S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THE EUROZONE`S ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDEX, THE NEW YORK EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING INDEX, AND SPEECHES BY FED MEMBERS BARR AND DALY. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START TUESDAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE GAINS, AND THEN ATTEMPT TO CONTINUE ITS UPTREND IF PROFIT-TAKING IS ABSORBED. SUPPORT: 14,200 - 14,000 RESISTANCE: 14,500 - 14,600.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS POSITIVE YESTERDAY, GAINING 0.07% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 43.7105. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.01% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE POSITIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND WAS TRADED WITHIN A TIGHT RANGE OF 29.72%-29.80%, ENDING THE DAY AT A LOW OF 29.72%, 11 BPS BELOW ITS PREVIOUS CLOSING.
HEADLINES:
*** IN JANUARY, THE BUDGET RECORDS A DEFICIT OF TRY 214.5 BILLION AND THE PRIMARY BALANCE A SURPLUS OF TRY 241.9 BILLION. INTEREST EXPENSES HIT A RECORD HIGH IN JANUARY DUE TO THE REDEMPTION OF CPI-INDEXED BONDS… ACCORDING TO THE JANUARY CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DATA PUBLISHED BY THE MINISTRY OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, BUDGET REVENUES AMOUNTED TO TRY 1,421 BILLION, WHILE BUDGET EXPENDITURES REACHED TRY 1,636 BILLION. DURING THE SAME PERIOD, NON-INTEREST BUDGET EXPENDITURES AMOUNTED TO TRY 1,179 BILLION. WITH THESE FIGURES, THE BUDGET DEFICIT STOOD AT TRY 214.5 BILLION, WHILE THE NON-INTEREST BALANCE SHOWED A SURPLUS OF TRY 241.9 BILLION. THE REDEMPTION OF THE CPI-INDEXED BOND ISSUED IN 2016, WHICH SHARPLY WIDENED THE GAP BETWEEN THE CORE BUDGET BALANCE AND THE OVERALL BALANCE, WAS THE MAIN FACTOR. INTEREST EXPENDITURE, WHICH AVERAGED TRY 171 BILLION LAST YEAR, AMOUNTED TO TRY 456.4 BILLION IN JANUARY 2026. WITH THE REFLECTION OF INFLATION DIFFERENCES IN EXPENDITURE ITEMS, THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN ALL EXPENDITURE ACCOUNTS. PERSONNEL EXPENSES BROKE A RECORD AT TRY 502 BILLION DUE TO THE IMPACT OF RAISES AND COMPENSATION. CURRENT TRANSFERS CONTINUED THEIR UPTREND, REACHING TRY 513.6 BILLION. IN JANUARY, TRY 15 BILLION WAS TRANSFERRED TO BOTAS, WHILE TRY 5.6 BILLION WAS TRANSFERRED TO HALKBANK. TOTAL TREASURY AID STANDS AT TRY 165 BILLION. THERE IS NO NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, TRANSFERS, AND LENDING ITEMS. WE CAN SAY THAT THE PRIMARY BUDGET BALANCE GAVE A RELATIVELY POSITIVE PERFORMANCE IN THE FIRST MONTH OF THE YEAR. IN PARTICULAR, FISCAL POLICIES THAT INCREASE TAX REVENUES AND REDUCE EXPENDITURES REINFORCE COORDINATION WITH MONETARY POLICY. THE 2025 FISCAL POLICY CLOSED BETTER THAN EXPECTED. WE MAY SEE FURTHER STEPS FROM POLICYMAKERS IN 2026 TOWARDS FULL COORDINATION, ALONG WITH FISCAL POLICY MEASURES SUPPORTING THE DISINFLATION PROCESS. MEASURES FROM MONETARY POLICY TO EASE FISCAL POLICY ARE ALSO IMPORTANT. DECREASES IN THE POLICY RATE WILL ALLEVIATE INTEREST RATE PRESSURE ON SHORT-TERM BORROWING INSTRUMENTS. THE BALANCING OF THE BUDGET DEFICIT AND THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF FISCAL DISCIPLINE WILL REDUCE MACROECONOMIC VULNERABILITIES AND BRING ABOUT A MORE RESILIENT PUBLIC FINANCE OUTLOOK IN THE FACE OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS. FURTHERMORE, THIS DEVELOPMENT, WHICH CURBS INFLATION CREATED BY THE PUBLIC SECTOR, WILL FULLY SUPPORT MONETARY POLICY IN ACHIEVING THE LONG-TERM INFLATION TARGET.
COMPANY NEWS:
ERDEMIR (EREGL.TI OP) IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS 4Q25 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF TRADING ON BORSA ISTANBUL TODAY. WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO REPORT TRY 59.279MN IN NET SALES FOR 4Q25 (MARKET MEDIAN: TRY 58.372MN). AT THE EBITDA LEVEL, THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION STANDS AT TRY 5.641MN, WHILE OUR ESTIMATE IS TRY 5.660MN. WE FORECAST THE COMPANY TO POST A TRY 1.370MN NET LOSS FOR THE QUARTER (MARKET MEDIAN NET LOSS: TRY 2,832MN).
FORD OTOSAN (FROTO.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT FOR EACH SHARE WITH A NOMINAL VALUE OF TL 1.00 A GROSS CASH DIVIDEND OF TL 3.64 (NET TL 3.094) SHALL BE PAID. BASED ON THE LAST CLOSING PRICE ON FEBRUARY 16, 2026, THE CASH DIVIDEND PER SHARE CORRESPONDS TO A GROSS DIVIDEND YIELD OF 2.7%. THE PROPOSED EX-DIVIDEND DATES ARE MARCH 16, 2026.
PETKIM (PETKM.TI MP) HAS REPORTED THAT DURING THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 9-13, 2026, THE ETHYLENE-NAPHTHA SPREAD DECLINED BY 9.2% WOW TO USD 187/TON, DRIVEN BY A 3.3% WEEKLY DROP IN ETHYLENE PRICES AND A 1.1% DECREASE IN NAPHTHA PRICES. WE VIEW THE NOTABLE CONTRACTION IN THE SPREAD AS NEGATIVE FOR PETKIM.
SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR
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YASAL UYARI
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