MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH - WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED TUESDAY ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TREND, EXPERIENCING VOLATILE TRADING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DAILY LOSS WAS LIMITED TO 0.08%, WITH AN INDEX CLOSE OF 14,050.83. AMONG SECTORAL INDICES, THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX DIVERGED NEGATIVELY WITH A 0.88% LOSS, WHILE THE BANKING INDEX DIVERGED POSITIVELY WITH A 0.29% GAIN. THE FINANCIAL LEASING AND FACTORING INDEX WAS THE MOST POSITIVELY DIVERGING INDEX WITH A 5.00% GAIN, WHILE THE SECURITIES INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIPS INDEX WAS THE MOST NEGATIVE WITH ITS 4.22% LOSS. THE VIOP FEBRUARY FUTURES CONTRACT COMPLETED THE EVENING SESSION UP 0.20%. GLOBALLY, FOLLOWING MONDAY`S DECLINE IN THE U.S. STOCK MARKETS, YESTERDAY SAW REBOUND RALLIES SUPPORTED BY GAINS IN TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES AND IMPROVED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. THE DOW JONES INDEX ROSE 0.76%, THE S&P 500 INDEX 0.77%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX 1.04%. ON THE EUROPEAN FRONT, THE DAY WAS RELATIVELY QUIET, WITH THE GERMAN DAX INDEX RECORDING A LIMITED DECLINE OF 0.02%, WHILE THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX ROSE SLIGHTLY BY 0.10%. PRESIDENT TRUMP, IN HIS STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS TO CONGRESS, EMPHASIZED THE RECOVERY OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. REGARDING THE NUCLEAR TENSION WITH IRAN, TRUMP MENTIONED THAT HE PREFERS TO RESOLVE THE PROBLEM THROUGH DIPLOMACY, BUT WILL NOT TOLERATE TEHRAN`S ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. AT THE START OF THE NEW DAY, ASIAN STOCK MARKETS ARE TRADING POSITIVELY. THE JAPANESE NIKKEI AND SOUTH KOREAN KOSPI INDICES ARE SHOWING GAINS EXCEEDING 2%, INDICATING STRENGTHENING RISK APPETITE ACROSS THE REGION. FUTURES IN THE U.S. AND EUROPE ARE SHOWING LIMITED POSITIVE PRICING. THERE ARE NO MAJOR DOMESTIC DATA RELEASES THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MARKET PERFORMANCE. GLOBALLY, GERMAN GDP, EUROZONE CPI, AND THE U.S. WEEKLY MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS DATA IS PROMINENT. ON THE FED SIDE, FOMC MEMBER BARKIN`S SPEECH WILL BE FOLLOWED. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START WEDNESDAY POSITIVELY, FOLLOWED BY INTRADAY VOLATILITY. SUPPORT: 13,900 - 13,800 RESISTANCE: 14,200 - 14,300.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE YESTERDAY, WEAKENING 0.03% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 43.8557. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.07% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY FLAT. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND WAS TRADED WITHIN A RANGE OF 30.13%-30.25%, ENDING AT THE 30.14%, UNCHANGED FROM ITS PREVIOUS CLOSING.
COMPANY NEWS:
AKBANK (AKBNK.TI OP): THE COMPETITION BOARD HAS DECIDED TO LAUNCH AN INVESTIGATION INTO CERTAIN BANKS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, AND COMPANIES, INCLUDING AKBANK T.A.S., TO DETERMINE WHETHER THEY HAVE ENGAGED IN PRACTICES PROHIBITED UNDER ARTICLE 4 OF LAW NO. 4054 ON THE PROTECTION OF COMPETITION, WHICH COVERS RESTRICTIVE AGREEMENTS, CONCERTED PRACTICES, AND DECISIONS OF ASSOCIATIONS OF UNDERTAKINGS IN THE LABOR MARKETS. THE INITIATION OF AN INVESTIGATION BY THE COMPETITION BOARD DOES NOT IN ITSELF MEAN THAT LAW NO. 4054 HAS BEEN VIOLATED, OR THAT ADMINISTRATIVE FINES WILL BE IMPOSED. ANY MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS DURING THE COURSE OF THE INVESTIGATION WILL BE DISCLOSED TO THE PUBLIC IN DUE COURSE.
ASELSAN`S (ASELS.TI OP) NET PROFIT INCREASED BY 55% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 4Q25, REACHING TRY 17,791 MILLION INCLUDING THE EFFECTS OF TMS-29 INFLATION ACCOUNTING (4Q24: TRY 11,482 MILLION). THE REPORTED FIGURE EXCEEDED BOTH THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 11,146 MILLION AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 12,093 MILLION. IN 4Q25, THE COMPANY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ITS OPERATIONAL PROFITABILITY, SUPPORTED BY STRONG REVENUE GROWTH AND DISCIPLINED COST MANAGEMENT. WHILE ASELSAN HAD RECORDED MONETARY LOSSES STEMMING FROM INFLATION ACCOUNTING IN PREVIOUS QUARTERS, IT POSTED A MONETARY GAIN IN THIS PERIOD, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO PROFITABILITY. DESPITE HIGHER TAX EXPENSES, NET PROFIT SHOWED A STRONG INCREASE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS PERIODS, DRIVEN BY IMPROVEMENTS IN OPERATIONS AND A FAVORABLE TREND IN FINANCIAL ITEMS.
ASELSAN`S NET SALES REVENUES ROSE BY 17.5% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 4Q25 TO TRY 85,614 MILLION. THE REPORTED FIGURE CAME IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE BOTH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 83,120 MILLION AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 83,019 MILLION. AS PART OF THE ASELSANEXT PROGRAM LAUNCHED AT THE BEGINNING OF 2024 TO ACHIEVE ITS LONG-TERM STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES, ASELSAN CONTINUED TO DELIVER POSITIVE RESULTS. CELIKKUBBE, RADAR SYSTEMS, ELECTRONIC WARFARE, ELECTRO-OPTICS, SMART AMMUNITION, GUIDED MUNITIONS, NAVAL AND UNDERWATER SYSTEMS, MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS, AND URBAN SECURITY SYSTEMS PLAYED A DECISIVE ROLE IN THIS PERFORMANCE.
EBITDA (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS) INCREASED BY 21.1% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 4Q25 TO TRY 23,674 MILLION (4Q24: TRY 19,550 MILLION), EXCEEDING BOTH THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 21,317 MILLION AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 21,545 MILLION. EBITDA STRENGTHENED IN 4Q25, SUPPORTED BY OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS. THE COMPANY INCREASED ITS EBITDA MARGIN TO 27.7% (4Q24: 26.8%), WHILE REDUCING GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES BY 10% THROUGH EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES. MOREOVER, ASELSAN MAINTAINED STRONG ORDER MOMENTUM, RAISING ITS BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO TO 2.2X IN 2025 (2024: 2.0X), THEREBY SUSTAINING SOLID ORDER INTAKE DYNAMICS AND LONG-TERM GROWTH VISIBILITY.
WITH THE CONTRIBUTION OF USD 9.6 BILLION IN NEW CONTRACTS SIGNED DURING 2025, ASELSAN`S TOTAL BACKLOG REACHED A HISTORICAL HIGH OF USD 20.4 BILLION (2024: USD 14 BILLION). CONTRACTS RELATED PARTICULARLY TO THE CELIKKUBBE PROJECT CONSTITUTED A SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF NEW ORDER INTAKE. OF THE USD 9.6 BILLION IN NEW ORDERS SECURED IN 2025, USD 2.1 BILLION WAS GENERATED FROM INTERNATIONAL MARKETS (2024: USD 1.01 BILLION). AS OF 2025, 97% OF THE COMPANY`S TOTAL BACKLOG CONSISTS OF DEFENSE PROJECTS, WHILE 3% RELATES TO NON-DEFENSE ACTIVITIES. IN TERMS OF CURRENCY BREAKDOWN, 49% OF LONG-TERM ORDERS ARE DENOMINATED IN USD, 45% IN EUR, AND 6% IN TRY.
THE COMPANY`S NET DEBT DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY, FALLING FROM TRY 24,803 MILLION AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2025 TO TRY 13,970 MILLION BY YEAR-END 2025. ASELSAN`S NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO IMPROVED FROM 0.53X IN 2024 TO 0.30X IN 2025. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE COMPANY CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN LEVERAGE METRICS BELOW SECTOR AVERAGES, FURTHER STRENGTHENING ITS FINANCIAL PROFILE.
REGARDING 2026 GUIDANCE, ASELSAN EXPECTS NET SALES REVENUE GROWTH OF OVER 10% IN TRY TERMS (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS). THE COMPANY TARGETS AN EBITDA MARGIN ABOVE 24% (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS) IN 2026. IN ADDITION, ASELSAN PLANS CAPITAL EXPENDITURES OF TRY 50 BILLION OR MORE IN 2026 (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS).
IN 2025, ASELSAN EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENTED ITS FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGY, ACHIEVING A NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT IN CASH GENERATION AND BALANCE SHEET QUALITY. OPERATING CASH FLOW (OCF) INCREASED FROM TRY 28 BILLION TO TRY 49 BILLION, WHILE FREE CASH FLOW (FCF) ROSE FROM TRY 91 MILLION TO TRY 10 BILLION. THE SHARE OF FINANCIAL DEBT WITHIN TOTAL ASSETS DECLINED FROM 13.4% TO 10%, REINFORCING THE COMPANY`S BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH AND FINANCIAL RESILIENCE.
ERDEMIR (EREGL.TI MP): FITCH RATINGS HAS AFFIRMED THE COMPANY`S LONG-TERM CREDIT RATING AT `BB-` WITH A `STABLE` OUTLOOK FOLLOWING A REVIEW RELATED TO CHANGES IN ITS RATING METHODOLOGY.
GARANTI BBVA (GARAN.TI OP): THE BANK HAS BEEN NOTIFIED BY THE COMPETITION BOARD THAT AN INVESTIGATION HAS BEEN LAUNCHED AGAINST THE BANK TO DETERMINE WHETHER ARTICLE 4 OF LAW NO. 4054 ON THE PROTECTION OF COMPETITION HAS BEEN VIOLATED IN THE LABOR MARKETS. THE INVESTIGATION PROCESS IS ONGOING, AND ANY MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING THE MATTER WILL BE DISCLOSED TO THE PUBLIC.
ACCORDING TO CNBC-E NEWS, THE CRIMINAL CASE FILED AGAINST HALKBANK (HALKB.TI MP) IN THE U.S. HAS BEEN BROUGHT BACK ONTO THE AGENDA BY THE COURT, WHICH HAD CANCELED THE HEARING LAST MONTH. JUDGE BERMAN, IN HIS DECISION PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY, RESCHEDULED THE STATUS CONFERENCE FOR MARCH 3, 2026.
ISBANK (ISCTR.TI OP) HAS BEEN NOTIFIED BY THE COMPETITION AUTHORITY THAT AN INVESTIGATION HAS BEEN INITIATED INTO CERTAIN BANKS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, AND OTHER COMPANIES, INCLUDING IS BANKASI, TO DETERMINE WHETHER ARTICLE 4 OF LAW NO. 4054 ON THE PROTECTION OF COMPETITION HAS BEEN VIOLATED IN THE LABOR MARKETS.
KOC HOLDING (KCHOL.TI OP) HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF ENERJI YATIRIMLARI A.S., WHERE KOC HOLDING A. S. AND ITS SUBSIDIARY AYGAZ A.S. OWN 77% AND 20% OF THE SHARES RESPECTIVELY, HAS RESOLVED TO SUBMIT THE PROPOSAL FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF A TRY 6,976,467,860 CASH DIVIDEND TO BE PAID ON 16.03.2026 FOR THE APPROVAL OF ITS SHAREHOLDERS GENERAL ASSEMBLY. THE CASH DIVIDEND ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE HOLDING AMOUNTS TO TRY 5,371,880,252. (RELATED COMPANIES: AYGAZ.TI).
YAPI KREDI BANK (YKBNK.TI OP): THE COMPETITION BOARD HAS DECIDED TO LAUNCH AN INVESTIGATION INTO CERTAIN BANKS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, AND OTHER COMPANIES, INCLUDING YAPI KREDI BANKASI, TO DETERMINE WHETHER ARTICLE 4 OF LAW NO. 4054 ON THE PROTECTION OF COMPETITION HAS BEEN VIOLATED IN THE LABOR MARKETS. AS IS KNOWN, THE INITIATION OF AN INVESTIGATION BY THE COMPETITION BOARD DOES NOT IMPLY THAT THE UNDERTAKINGS SUBJECT TO THE INVESTIGATION HAVE VIOLATED LAW NO. 4054, OR THAT THEY ARE, OR WILL BE SUBJECT TO ADMINISTRATIVE SANCTIONS UNDER THE LAW. ANY MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING THE MATTER WILL BE DISCLOSED TO THE PUBLIC IN ACCORDANCE WITH CAPITAL MARKETS REGULATIONS.



SEKER YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S
WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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YASAL UYARI

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