MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH (SEKER YATIRIM)

MARKET WATCH - WEDNESDAY, APRIL 29, 2026
OUTLOOK:
THE BIST-100 INDEX STARTED TUESDAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE MOMENTUM AT 14,608.52, THEREAFTER EXPERIENCING A SELL-OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMID RISING SELLING PRESSURE, THE INDEX CLOSED THE DAY AT ITS LOWEST TRADING LEVEL OF 14,329.34, DOWN 1.81%. THE INDUSTRIAL INDEX FELL BY 1.56% AND THE BANKING INDEX LOST 1.97%. THE SPORTS INDEX WAS THE STRONGEST PERFORMER OF THE DAY WITH A 1.41% GAIN, WHILE THE FINANCIAL LEASING AND FACTORING INDEX WAS THE WEAKEST, DOWN 4.70%. THE VIOP APRIL FUTURES CONTRACT FOR THE NEAR-TERM INDEX RECORDED A 0.05% INCREASE IN THE EVENING SESSION, DESPITE A LIMITED POSITIVE TREND. GLOBALLY, WEAK RISK APPETITE IN EQUITY MARKETS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE SELLING PRESSURE. ON THE EUROPEAN FRONT, THE GERMAN DAX INDEX FELL BY 0.27% AND THE EURO STOXX 50 INDEX BY 0.46%, WHILE IN THE U.S. MARKETS, THE DOW JONES INDEX DROPPED BY 0.05%, THE S&P 500 INDEX BY 0.49%, AND THE NASDAQ INDEX BY 0.90%. ACCORDING TO A REPORT IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS INSTRUCTED THAT THE CURRENT NAVAL BLOCKADE AGAINST IRAN BE MAINTAINED, AS THIS OPTION IS SEEN AS LOWER RISK COMPARED TO OTHER ALTERNATIVES. REGARDING THE LATEST IRANIAN PROPOSAL TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE U.S. SIDE IS MAINTAINING A CAUTIOUS STANCE, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN AGREEMENT IS CONSIDERED LOW. UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ KEEP RISKS TO GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY ALIVE, CONTINUING TO PRESSURE THE MARKETS. AT THE START OF THE NEW DAY, ASIAN STOCK MARKETS REVEAL A POSITIVE OUTLOOK. MARKETS IN JAPAN ARE CLOSED. IN FUTURES MARKETS, THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN INDEX FUTURES ARE SHOWING LIMITED POSITIVE PRICING. THE MACROECONOMIC DATA AGENDA FOR THE DAY INCLUDES THE APRIL ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE INDEX DOMESTICALLY AND THE FED`S INTEREST RATE DECISION GLOBALLY. MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE FED WILL KEEP ITS POLICY RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50-3.75% AT THIS MEETING. LOCALLY, WE EXPECT THE BENCHMARK INDEX TO START WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED POSITIVE GAINS, FOLLOWED BY A VOLATILE INTRADAY COURSE. SUPPORT: 14,200 - 14,100 RESISTANCE: 14,400 - 14,500.
MONEY MARKET:
THE LIRA WAS NEGATIVE YESTERDAY, WEAKENING 0.06% AGAINST THE USD TO CLOSE AT 45.0479. THE CURRENCY ALSO APPRECIATED BY 0.02% AGAINST A BASKET OF $0.50 AND €0.50. MEANWHILE, THE LOCAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS WERE NEGATIVE. THE TEN-YEAR BENCHMARK BOND WAS TRADED WITHIN A RANGE OF 33.61%-33.93%, ENDING THE DAY AT A HIGH OF 33.93%, 49 BPS ABOVE ITS PREVIOUS CLOSING.
SECTOR NEWS:
ACCORDING TO DATA RELEASED BY TURKBESD, ACROSS THE SIX MAIN PRODUCT GROUPS (REFRIGERATORS, WASHING MACHINES, DISHWASHERS, OVENS, FREEZERS, AND DRYERS), DOMESTIC SALES DECLINED BY A RELATIVELY LIMITED 3% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN MARCH. HOWEVER, THE SHARP 29% CONTRACTION IN EXPORTS WAS THE KEY FACTOR WEIGHING ON OVERALL SECTOR PERFORMANCE. IN LINE WITH THE WEAKENING EXTERNAL DEMAND, PRODUCTION VOLUME ALSO DECLINED BY 21%, INDICATING THAT THE DEMAND SLOWDOWN HAS STRONGLY TRANSMITTED TO THE SUPPLY SIDE. TOTAL SALES AMOUNTED TO 2.2 MILLION UNITS, POINTING TO A SIGNIFICANT YEAR-ON-YEAR CONTRACTION AT THE SECTOR LEVEL.
LOOKING AT A BROADER PERSPECTIVE FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2026, DOMESTIC DEMAND CONTRACTED BY 10% AMID HIGH INFLATION AND TIGHT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, WHILE EXPORTS FELL BY 23%. AS A RESULT, TOTAL SALES VOLUME DECLINED BY 19% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO 6.3 MILLION UNITS. GIVEN THE HIGH SHARE OF EXPORTS IN TOTAL SALES, WE BELIEVE THAT WEAK EXTERNAL DEMAND REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE OVERALL CONTRACTION IN THE SECTOR.
ON A SEGMENT BASIS, DRYERS STOOD OUT ON THE DOMESTIC SALES SIDE, POSITIVELY DIVERGING AS THE BEST-PERFORMING PRODUCT GROUP, WHILE THE SHARPEST CONTRACTION WAS RECORDED IN THE FREEZER SEGMENT WITH A 27% DECLINE. ON THE EXPORT SIDE, WASHING MACHINES POSTED THE WEAKEST PERFORMANCE, WITH A STEEP 44% DROP. IN TERMS OF PRODUCTION, THE OVEN SEGMENT SHOWED A RELATIVELY RESILIENT PERFORMANCE WITH A MODEST INCREASE, WHEREAS THE 24% DECLINE IN THE DRYER SEGMENT REMAINS NOTEWORTHY. OVERALL, MARCH AND FIRST-QUARTER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WEAKNESS IN DEMAND CONDITIONS IS BECOMING MORE STRUCTURAL RATHER THAN TEMPORARY. IN PARTICULAR, THE CONTRACTION IN EXPORT MARKETS AND INTENSIFYING COMPETITIVE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO POSE DOWNSIDE RISKS TO THE SECTOR`S NEAR-TERM RECOVERY OUTLOOK.
COMPANY NEWS:
AKBANK (AKBNK. TI OP) HAS REPORTED A NET INCOME OF TRY 19.2BN IN 1Q26 SOLO FINANCIALS (QOQ: +4.6%, YOY: +40%), BROADLY IN LINE WITH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 19.1BN AND MARKET EXPECTATIONS. THE INCREASE IN NET INTEREST INCOME AND THE STRONG PERFORMANCE IN TRADING INCOME SUPPORTED PROFITABILITY, WHILE THE RISE IN OPERATING EXPENSES AND THE CONTRACTION IN FEE INCOME WERE THE MAIN FACTORS WEIGHING ON EARNINGS. THE BANK`S NET INTEREST INCOME INCREASED BY 12% QOQ, WHILE SWAP COSTS ROSE BY 17% OVER THE SAME PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY, SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST INCOME GREW BY 9.4% QOQ TO TRY 24.7BN. THE SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST MARGIN IMPROVED BY 10BPS QOQ TO 3.23% HOWEVER, THE 10% DECLINE IN CPI-LINKED SECURITIES INCOME AND THE RISE IN SWAP COSTS LIMITED THE MARGIN EXPANSION. WE ASSESS THE 1Q26 RESULTS AS NEUTRAL, AS THEY ARE IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS, AND MAINTAIN OUR 12-MONTH TARGET PRICE OF TRY 108.10.
ASELSAN (ASELS.TI OP) HAS REPORTED A NET INCOME OF TRY 5,539 MILLION IN 1Q26 (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS), MARKING A STRONG YEAR-ON-YEAR INCREASE OF 86.1% (1Q25: TRY 2,977 MILLION). THE REPORTED NET INCOME CAME IN ABOVE BOTH THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 4,667 MILLION AND OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 4,375 MILLION. IN 1Q26, THE COMPANY STRENGTHENED ITS OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST REVENUE GROWTH AND IMPROVED EBITDA PROFITABILITY. IN PARTICULAR, DEFERRED TAX INCOME WAS THE MAIN DRIVER LIFTING NET PROFITABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE DECLINE IN FINANCIAL EXPENSES AND MONETARY POSITION LOSSES ALSO CONTRIBUTED POSITIVELY TO EARNINGS.
ASELSAN`S NET SALES REVENUES INCREASED BY 15% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO TRY 34,306 MILLION IN 1Q26. THE REPORTED FIGURE WAS BROADLY IN LINE WITH OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 33,950 MILLION AND THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 34,150 MILLION. REVENUE GENERATION IN THE FIRST QUARTER WAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY PROJECTS IN STEEL DOME (CELIKKUBBE), RADAR, ELECTRONIC WARFARE, MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS, AI-SUPPORTED URBAN SECURITY, ELECTRO-OPTICS, AND GUIDED MUNITIONS SYSTEMS. EBITDA (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS) ROSE BY 28.3% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO TRY 8,633 MILLION (1Q25: TRY 6,730 MILLION), SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING BOTH OUR ESTIMATE AND THE MARKET CONSENSUS OF TRY 8,487 MILLION. THE COMPANY IMPROVED ITS EBITDA MARGIN TO 25.16% IN 1Q26 (1Q25: 22.56%), WHILE REDUCING GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES BY 3% THROUGH EFFICIENCY MEASURES. MEANWHILE, THE BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO, AN IMPORTANT INDICATOR OF GROWTH, STOOD AT 1.6 IN 1Q26 (1Q25: 2.3).
THE COMPANY RECORDED HISTORICAL HIGHS IN NEW EXPORT CONTRACTS AND BACKLOG. GLOBAL DEMAND FOR ASELSAN`S PRODUCTS AND SYSTEMS CONTINUED TO EXPAND. NEW EXPORT CONTRACTS SIGNED IN 1Q26 INCREASED BY 69% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO USD 629 MILLION (1Q25: USD 372 MILLION). THE COMPANY`S BACKLOG ALSO ROSE BY 39% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO USD 20.7 BILLION (1Q25: USD 15 BILLION). AS OF 2025, 97% OF THE TOTAL BACKLOG CONSISTS OF DEFENSE-RELATED ORDERS, WHILE 3% COMES FROM NON-DEFENSE SEGMENTS. IN TERMS OF CURRENCY BREAKDOWN, LONG-TERM ORDERS ARE COMPOSED OF 51% USD, 43% EUR, AND 6% TRY.
DESPITE A QUARTERLY INCREASE, NET DEBT IMPROVED ON AN ANNUAL BASIS. NET DEBT, WHICH STOOD AT TRY 15,373 MILLION AS OF FY2025, HAD INCREASED BY 44% TO TRY 22,084 MILLION BY THE END OF 1Q26. HOWEVER, ON A YEAR-ON-YEAR BASIS, NET DEBT DECLINED BY 16%. ACCORDINGLY, THE NET DEBT/EBITDA RATIO IMPROVED TO 0.41X IN 1Q26, COMPARED TO 0.60X IN 1Q25.
2026 GUIDANCE: THE COMPANY EXPECTS NET SALES REVENUES TO GROW BY MORE THAN 10% IN TRY TERMS (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS) IN 2026. IT ALSO TARGETS AN EBITDA MARGIN ABOVE 24% FOR THE YEAR. IN ADDITION, ASELSAN PLANS TO EXECUTE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES OF TRY 50 BILLION OR MORE (INCLUDING TMS-29 EFFECTS).
ONGOING R&D AND PRODUCTION INVESTMENTS: R&D EXPENDITURES INCREASED BY 41% YEAR-ON-YEAR TO USD 357 MILLION IN THE PERIOD. INVESTMENTS AIMED AT CAPACITY EXPANSION, PARTICULARLY AT THE OGULBEY TECHNOLOGY CAMPUS AND EXISTING FACILITIES, SURGED BY 261% COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PERIOD.
CIMSA (CIMSA.TI OP) IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS 1Q26 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF TURKISH MARKETS TODAY. WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO GENERATE NET SALES OF TRY 11,875MN IN 1Q26 (MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION: TRY 11,591MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, WHILE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION STANDS AT TRY 1,466MN, OUR FORECAST IS TRY 1,543MN. OVERALL, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO REPORT A NET PROFIT OF TRY 527MN IN THE FIRST QUARTER (MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION: TRY 572MN).
ERDEMIR (EREGL.TI MP): THE COMPANY HAS ANNOUNCED THE PAYMENT SCHEDULE FOR ITS 2025 DIVIDEND OF TRY 0.55 GROSS (TRY 0.4675 NET) PER SHARE, IMPLYING A DIVIDEND YIELD OF APPROXIMATELY 1.7% GROSS AND 1.4% NET BASED ON CURRENT PRICE LEVELS. PAYMENTS WILL START ON JUNE 3, 2026, WITH CASH TO BE CREDITED ON JUNE 5, 2026.
ERDEMIR (EREGL.TI MP) HAS REPORTED A NET PROFIT OF TRY 384MN IN 1Q26. THIS FIGURE IS 5% ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 366 MN, AND 28% ABOVE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 300MN.
EBITDA CAME IN AT TRY 5,820MN. THIS FIGURE IS 0.6% ABOVE OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 5,787MN (BROADLY IN LINE), AND 3.3% BELOW THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 6,020MN.
ERDEMIR REPORTED TRY 59,685MN IN NET SALES IN 1Q26. THIS FIGURE IS 6% BELOW OUR ESTIMATE OF TRY 63,168MN, AND 2% ABOVE THE MARKET MEDIAN EXPECTATION OF TRY 58,522MN.
GARANTI BBVA (GARAN.TI OP) IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS 1Q26 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TURKISH MARKETS. WE EXPECT THE BANK TO REPORT A NET INCOME OF TRY 31.0BN IN 1Q26, IMPLYING A 17% QOQ INCREASE. WE BELIEVE THE IMPROVEMENT IN NET INTEREST INCOME (SWAP-ADJUSTED) AND THE NORMALIZATION IN THE EFFECTIVE TAX RATE WILL BE THE KEY DRIVERS OF SEQUENTIAL EARNINGS GROWTH. WE ALSO EXPECT A LIMITED EXPANSION IN NET INTEREST MARGIN, WHILE A MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN COST OF RISK SHOULD FURTHER SUPPORT PROFITABILITY.
TURKISH AIRLINES (THYAO.TI OP) IS TO ANNOUNCE ITS 1Q26 RESULTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE TR MARKETS. FOR 1Q26, WE EXPECT NET SALES OF USD 5,916MN (MARKET AVERAGE EXPECTATION: USD 5,830MN). ON THE EBITDA SIDE, THE AVERAGE MARKET EXPECTATION IS USD 651MN, WHILE OUR EXPECTATION IS USD 683MN. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE COMPANY TO PRINT A NET PROFIT OF USD 266MN (MARKET EXPECTATION: USD 109MN).
YAPI KREDI BANK (YKBNK. TI OP) HAS REPORTED A NET INCOME OF TRY 20.3BN IN ITS 1Q26 FINANCIAL RESULTS, ABOVE BOTH OUR ESTIMATE AND THE MARKET CONSENSUS (QOQ: +119%, YOY: +78%). THE BANK`S NET INTEREST INCOME INCREASED BY 13% QOQ, WHILE SWAP COSTS ROSE BY 8% OVER THE SAME PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY, SWAP-ADJUSTED NET INTEREST INCOME GREW BY 21% QOQ TO TRY 23.1BN. WHILE FEE INCOME RECORDED A SLIGHT CONTRACTION, OPERATING EXPENSES DECLINED BY 5% QOQ. IN ADDITION TO THE STRENGTHENING IN CORE REVENUE LINES, THE LOW BASE EFFECT-DRIVEN BY ELEVATED TAX EXPENSES IN THE PREVIOUS QUARTER-WAS THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE STRONG SEQUENTIAL INCREASE IN NET INCOME (POSITIVE).



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WWW.SEKERYATIRIM.COM.TR

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