MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE (QNB INVEST)

MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE (QNB INVEST)

DISINFLATION BACK ON TRACK WHILE THE LIRA ABSORBS THE FUND SHOCK: SEPTEMBER CPI ROSE
BY 1.8% MOM, BELOW THE 2.2% CONSENSUS, BRINGING ANNUAL INFLATION DOWN FROM 31.5% TO
29.7%, WHILE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CPI EASED TO 1.6%, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE NOVEMBER
2025, AND SERVICES INFLATION FELL TO A FIVE-YEAR LOW. WE MAINTAIN OUR YEAR-END INFLATION
FORECASTS OF 29% FOR 2026 AND 25% FOR 2027, AND EXPECT 100BP CUTS AT BOTH THE 22 OCTOBER
AND 10 DECEMBER MPC MEETINGS. ON THE CURRENCY SIDE, THE LIRA`S STABILITY CAME AT A COST
TO RESERVES, WITH NET RESERVES EXCLUDING SWAPS DECLINING FROM USD57BN AT THE END OF
AUGUST TO USD38BN IN THE WEEK OF 2 OCTOBER. HOWEVER, WITH THE LIQUIDATED FUNDS
CORRESPONDING TO ONLY 1.5% OF RESIDENTS` TOTAL FINANCIAL ASSETS AND THE LIRA STILL RANKING
AMONG THE TOP THREE EM CURRENCIES IN TERMS OF CARRY-TRADE RETURN, WE DO NOT SEE A SYSTEMIC
RISK AND EXPECT THE BALANCED TREND IN THE CURRENCY TO CONTINUE.
FUND DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN AT THE CENTER OF BIST BIST-30 DIVERGENCE TO CONTINUE:
FUNDS SUBJECT TO LIQUIDATION (INCLUDING THOSE WHOSE LIQUIDATION HAS ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED) ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE HELD TRY195BN IN EQUITIES, BASED ON THEIR LATEST
DISCLOSED PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS AND CURRENT SHARE PRICES, EQUIVALENT TO C.4% OF BIST`S FREE
FLOAT. SELLING PRESSURE FROM THE REMAINING LIQUIDATIONS COULD EXTEND OVER THE NEXT MONTHS.
THE RESPONSE HAS MOVED FROM CONTAINMENT TO RESOLUTION, WITH A FUND COORDINATION COUNCIL
SET UP AND INTERIM PAYMENTS OF UP TO TRY1MN PER INVESTOR. STILL, POTENTIAL SELLING DURING
THE LIQUIDATION PROCESS, LOW VOLUMES AND POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN NEW MONEY INFLOWS MAY
WEIGH IN THE SHORT TERM. THE BIST-30 HAS ALREADY OUTPERFORMED THE BIST-100 BY C.7PP
SINCE THE END OF AUGUST, AND WE THINK DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR THE STOCK SPECIFIC NAMES IN BIST30 REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN ITS FUNDAMENTALS AND ITS EXEMPTION FROM THE FUND CONCENTRATION
RULES ALSO.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN OCTOBER: THE CBRT`S MPC MEETING ON 22 OCTOBER, THE FIRST
COMPLIANCE DEADLINE FOR THE FUND GUIDELINES AT END-OCTOBER, THE TIMING OF INTERIM FUND
PAYMENTS AND THE 3Q26 EARNINGS SEASON, WHICH STARTS NEXT WEEK, ARE THE MAIN CATALYSTS.
FOR OUR COVERAGE, WE EXPECT 28% EARNINGS GROWTH FOR NON-FINANCIALS AND 4% DECLINE FOR
FINANCIALS, AS THE POSITIVE DEFERRED TAX EFFECTS THAT SUPPORTED 2Q26 RESULTS FADE, ENERGY
COSTS PEAK AND DOMESTIC DEMAND SLOWS. DESPITE THE SOFTER HEADLINE, ASELS, ENJSA,
KRDMD AND TUPRS STAND OUT WITH THE STRONGEST YOY EARNINGS MOMENTUM IN OUR LARGE
CAPS COVERAGE. WITHIN OUR MODEL PORTFOLIO, WE STAY WITH LIQUID

QNB INVEST ARASTIRMA
QNB YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A.S.
HTTPS://WWW.QNBINVEST.COM.TR/

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